Balancing Relations Between Russia and US
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
The US as well as Russia are both important partners for India. But because of the Russia’s turbulent ties with the US and Europe, there are policy issues that India needs to navigate through while maintaining a balance.
India deeply ‘invested in a positive reorientation of Moscow’s ties with the West’
As Russia and the West begin a new dialogue on European security, C Raja Mohan (director, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore and contributing editor of international affairs for The Indian Express) writes “India is deeply invested in a positive reorientation of Moscow’s ties with the West. The rise of China and the consequent geopolitical churn in Asia, have raised India’s stakes in US-Russia relations.” Prospects for US sanctions on India triggered by the purchase of advanced Russian weapons like the S-400 missiles is one example. The continuous escalation of tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine, is another.
Two weeks ago, “Russia presented several proposals for a new European security architecture. Moscow is calling for an end to NATO’s further eastward expansion. Moscow also wants NATO to rescind its earlier promise to make Ukraine and Georgia — two former Soviet Republics — members of the military alliance. Russia is also proposing an agreement on reducing provocative military activity on its borders. It also wants to work out new arms control and military confidence-building measures in Europe.
“…….While pessimists see no hope for shared understanding between Russia and NATO, optimists note that the current effort to reset bilateral ties comes after some serious rethinking in both Washington and Moscow and high-level political consultations between the two sides.”
India’s policy options
Policy makers in India are obviously watching developments keenly. But it is a fact that “in Delhi, the tendency is to over-determine Russia’s contradictions with the West. It is not Russia’s national destiny to forever confront the West. Russia’s current problems with the West are not about ideological principles. It is about the terms of an honourable accommodation…..
“Delhi can’t influence the new effort to build a mutually acceptable security order in Europe, but it can welcome and support it. That the pressure for this attempted reset in Russia’s relations with the West is coming from Asian geopolitics is of some significance.
“In the past, Delhi’s strategic enthusiasm for Moscow was shaped by India’s difficulties with the West. Today a reconciliation between Russia and the West will make it a lot easier for India to manage its own security challenges.
“Delhi knows that stabilising the Asian balance of power will be difficult without a measure of US-Russian cooperation in Europe. If Moscow — at odds with the West in the last two decades — deepens its current close alignment with Beijing, it will be a lot harder to prevent Chinese dominance over Asia.”
Foreign policy choices
Before stabilising the Asian balance of power, India will need to balance its relations with US and Russia.
Irritants for Russia: One irritant for Russia, writes K C Singh (former secretary MEA) “has been India diversifying its weapons purchase sources. Israel’s defence industry did not threaten Russia as much as the United States because of the sheer depth of platforms that the US can offer. Also, US weapons sales are never merely commercial transactions. They are a means to influence the foreign policy choices of the recipient nations, if not compelling them to align fully with the US……
“How complex the task is when balancing relations between two powers at loggerheads becomes apparent from simply looking at the trade figures. India-Russia trade last year was $8.1 billion, compared to $146 billion with the US. Even with the EU, it is $71 billion. But Russia has always been more forthcoming in sharing critical technologies in the field of space, missiles, aviation and submarines…….”
The positives: Thus, during the recent Modi-Putin summit, while “the resolve to hike bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2025 seems unrealistic. The agreement to jointly produce 6,00,000 AK-203 rifles appears more doable. The reiteration of the order for the S-400 battery system, despite the threat of US sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), would have reassured Russia that India was retaining strategic independence despite its growing relations with the US. Russia would also be sharing India’s concerns about the post-Taliban developments in Afghanistan as well as the growing Chinese role in Central Asia. But India also hosted the Summit for Democracy hosted by President Joe Biden, which Russia and even more so China condemned…..”
