Chinese Navy’s Forays into Bangladesh, Myanmar: Concern for India
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
The disturbed conditions that exist in in Bangladesh and Myanmar, are likely to have an effect on India’s security. This is the view of Pradeep C. Nair (retired general officer of the Indian Army).
Bangladesh: threat perception
Bangladesh, under chief adviser Muhammad Yunus, has not stopped its anti-India tirade and is being increasingly seen as warming up to Islamabad. The recent trip of an ISI delegation to Bangladesh and their visits to areas from where they can potentially engineer trouble for India’s Northeast “is troubling. So are the media reports of the ISI’s outreach to the ARSA -- the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (a creation of the ISI itself) during this visit.”
Increased Chinese naval presence at Chittagong port is also a concern “given that Bangladesh already has Chinese frigates, submarines and missile boats. This is a fair assumption given the five-day visit undertaken recently by Bangladesh’s foreign affairs adviser Tauhid Hossain in January 2025 to Beijing, where he met top Chinese officials."
Myanmar: threat perception
Chinese presence, or interference, in Myanmar is also likely to continue, given the unrest there. China’s main objective in Myanmar, writes the former General “is to gain access to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar and gain control over the dual-use deep-sea port in Kyaukphyu on Myanmar’s west coast. Since 1985, when plans for the development of China’s Yunnan province were made, gaining access to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar has been on Beijing’s radar.
“Since the 1990s there has been speculation about the Chinese presence in Myanmar’s Coco Islands. Images taken in January 2023 show signs of military modernisation, including a longer runway, radar station and hangars. With the Myanmar military suffering successive defeats and with the crucial Rakhine state now almost fallen to the Arakan Army (a Chinese creation of 2009), the pressure on the junta’s generals will be immense. To them, the only saviour is China. The development of Kyaukphu port as a Chinese naval outpost will, therefore, become a reality if the military continues to lose control over Myanmar and is in need of Beijing’s assured support to remain in power.”
Thailand’s Kra Isthmus Canal
A less spoken of, but equally relevant attempt by China to reach the Indian Ocean, writes the former General “is Thailand’s Kra Isthmus Canal. This canal is a proposed waterway that would connect the Gulf of Thailand to the Andaman Sea. China will be the major beneficiary if this project fructifies as it would help China overcome the Malacca Dilemma……The canal, as and when it becomes a reality, would allow ships to bypass the choked Malacca Strait, which is also the world’s busiest trade route. It would shorten the distance by 1,200 km for ships that would pass between the Indian and Pacific Oceans….”
The increased presence of China at the three locations mentioned above, besides their presence at Djibouti, Gwadar and Hambanota, is a genuine threat perception for India.
