Hamas Chief Assassination: Impact on the Region and India
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’s politburo and one of its primary negotiators, in Tehran, apparently by Israel, will have an impact in the region, the world and India, in the view of Shubhajit Roy who writes on Trending Topics, Opinions and Top Headlines at Indian Express.
Understanding the regional, global impact
Blow to Hamas: First, “this is the most high-profile blow to Hamas since the October 7 attacks…..So, from the Israeli point of view, this is a major victory for its mission to neutralise Hamas….”
Major provocation by Israel: Second, “Hamas views this as a major provocation since Haniyeh was the head of its political bureau, based in Qatar. He was the public face of Hamas and was negotiating the terms of the hostage deal and the ceasefire…..”
The Tehran factor: Third, “the fact that the targeted strike took place in Tehran will be seen as a major escalatory move. Haniyeh had also met Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The Hamas leader, who was living in Qatar, gave him immunity there. But, by killing him in Iran, it seems, Israel has made a move to signal that the group’s leaders are not safe in Iranian security."
Newly-elected Pezeshkian will be under pressure fro hardliners: Fourth, “within Iran and Hamas, there will be now calls for avenging the death of Haniyeh, and that is certain to put pressure on the newly-elected Pezeshkian, who is considered a moderate and may find himself in a tight spot to respond.” But he will now “be under pressure from hardliners in the Iranian establishment to respond in kind.”
Lifeline to Israel’s PM: Fifth, “this assassination gives a lifeline to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu”
Kamala Harris factor: Sixth, with Vice President Kamala Harris has signalled that she will be tougher on Netanyahu. She “will now have to think about how to respond in case there is escalation in the region."
Impact on the region: Seventh, states Ray “the wider region is a tinderbox, because if there is an escalation by Iran and Hamas, it will impact the entire region……this is a defining moment when the region might get drawn into a broader conflict.”
Critical and perilous turning point
In its assessment, The Statesman writes "the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran marks a critical and perilous turning point in the ongoing conflict in West Asia. This act has far-reaching implications, not only for the immediate actors involved but also for the broader geopolitical landscape. Haniyeh’s assassination is likely to inflame an already volatile region. His role as a prominent figure in Hamas and his close ties to Iran made him a key player in the West Asian power dynamics. The immediate fallout from his death is expected to be severe, with Hamas vowing to continue its struggle and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards investigating the incident. The possibility of retaliation and further escalation of violence looms large. The timing of this assassination cannot be ignored.”
Repercussions in Wet Asia: In West Asia, “the repercussions of Haniyeh’s assassination will be felt acutely. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s condemnation and the call for mass demonstrations in the West Bank highlight the potential for widespread unrest. The fragile peace in Lebanon is also at risk, especially given the recent killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr and the subsequent Israeli strike in the Golan Heights.”
Setback to peace: threat of further escalation
Coming on the heels of Israel’s claim of killing a senior Hezbollah commander, it seems calculated to disrupt any nascent peace efforts.
In this context, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani frames a fundamental question. How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator? The Benjamin Netanyahu government, writes The Indian Express “seemingly immune to international pressure or criticism, is playing a maximalist game that makes a negotiated peace a more distant possibility……Israel must know that this hard militarism does more than just make Palestinians, and the region, more insecure — it also damages its own social and political fabric irretrievably.
Haniyeh’s assassination and the Beirut strike threaten to expand the conflict into an all-out regional war…..”
Iran’s Supreme Leader and Revolutionary Guards Council (IRGC) have already spoken of retaliation, including through the ‘axis of Resistance’ — a term it uses for the network of non-state actors including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis that are engaged in various degrees of conflict with Israel.
India’s stakes
For India, The Indian Express writes “while it does not have any positive sentiments about the Hamas leaders, it will be careful in its framing — since it involves a targeted assassination on foreign soil. The immediate Indian concern will be the peace and stability in the region which is home to about 9 million Indians living and working in the region, apart from the region supplying almost two-thirds of crude to India.”
India has huge economic stakes in the region, apart from its commitment to peace, that are endangered by the conflict. In addition to the estimated 8.9 million migrant workers, it has much to gain from the India-Middle-East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi last year. Without peace and stability, the IMEC cannot take off. As a friend to Israel as well as Palestine, Delhi should continue to do all it can to bring both sides to the negotiating table.
The stability of this region, writes The Statesman “has direct implications for India’s energy security, diaspora welfare, and broader foreign policy objectives. India has consistently advocated for a peaceful resolution to the Israel-Palestine conflict and must continue to push for dialogue and diplomacy amidst this heightened tension…..”
