India - China:  China’s Peace Overture

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India - China:  China’s Peace Overture

China  has reached out to India, two years after the military standoff along the Line of Control (LAC) in Ladakh  to revive bilateral dialogue and set the stage for the BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa) summit in China later this year.

 

Series of visits proposed by China

According to information  with Shubhajit Roy (Associate Editor & Deputy Chief of National Bureau, Indian Express), Beijing has proposed a visit by Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi to India earlier this month. This is to be followed by a reciprocal visit by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. The Chinese side has also proposed a series of high-level visits by its top Politburo members and key officials in President Xi Jinping’s regime.

The Chinese have also proposed an ‘India-China Civilization Dialogue’ to be held in both countries. They have also proposed an India-China Trade and Investment Cooperation Forum and an India-China Film Forum.

Ultimate objective: The ultimate and clear objective, writes Roy  is to host Prime Minister Narendra Modi  for the in-person BRICS summit which will be attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin as well. China, which also holds the chair for the RIC (Russia-India-China) trilateral this year, could also host the leaders’ summit on the sidelines of the BRICS summit.

 

Window of opportunity

In the current circumstances, it is politically difficult for Modi to attend an in-person meeting with Xi — when the border standoff has still not been resolved. Their last face-to-face meeting was in Brazil for the BRICS summit in November 2019. In October 2019, Xi had visited India for an informal summit in Mahabalipuram.

The last BRICS summit to take place in China was in Xiamen in September 2017 which was attended by Modi. In fact, the Doklam border standoff was resolved after two-and-half months, just before the BRICS summit.

This time, by reaching out with a proposed Foreign Minister-level visit, Roy says “Beijing is signalling that it is keen to bring ties back on track.”

In any case, officials feel a potential window of opportunity to unlock the standoff exists: the 14th BRICS summit in 2022 is going to be hosted by China. The Doklam border stand-off was resolved days before the summit in September 2017 in Xiamen.

 

Three mutualsare required to mend strained ties

While India has always maintained that the border situation has adversely impacted bilateral ties, China has insisted that the border dispute should be handled appropriately and the larger picture of bilateral ties should be kept in mind.

Officials said New Delhi’s approach that three “mutuals” are required to mend strained ties between India and China is key. In January 2021, Jaishankar had described the three “mutuals” as mutual respect, mutual sensitivity and mutual interests and said these were determining factors for ties.

 

Real movement only if PLA decides to restore April 2020 status quo ante in East Ladakh

According to Shishir Gupta (Executive Editor, Hindustan Times)  “the real movement towards normalization of bilateral relations can only be achieved if the PLA decides to restore April 2020 status quo ante in East Ladakh. As of now, the last movement on disengagement in East Ladakh took place in general area Gogra (patrolling point 17A) after the 12th round of India-China military commanders dialogue on July 31, 2021. Hot Springs is located 10 kilometres from Gogra and 40 km from patrolling point 15 or Kongka La area. There has been no de-escalation with the Indian Army and Chinese PLA deploying nearly three divisions of troops on their sides of the 1597 km Ladakh Line of Actual Control (LAC).

While China wants to restore economic cooperation with India with parallel dialogue on the boundary issue, India on its part has made it clear that the road to normalization of bilateral ties goes through restoring peace and tranquillity on the border. This includes Chinese adherence to the 1993 and 1996 pacts as well as resolving the patrolling rights issue in Depsang and Demchok areas after the restoration of April 2020 status from Galwan to south Pangong Tso areas.

The boundary resolution has become all the trickier with PLA indulging in massive up-gradation of military infrastructure all along the 3488 km LAC with new airbases, aircraft blast pens, missiles and surveillance using drones and electronic sensors.

 

No breakthrough at 15th round of military talks

Meanwhile, the 15th round of corps commander-level talks of the India-China military dialogue two weeks ago  failed to yield any breakthrough. Commanders from both sides however,  agreed to carry on dialogue through military and diplomatic channels to reach a mutually acceptable resolution of outstanding problems at friction points on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Ladakh sector.

The talks came on the back of positive signals from both nations that had said that they were hopeful of progress and that the conversation was encouraging.

Since the two sides clashed in the Galwan Valley two years ago — an event which underlined China’s aggressive and willful violation of border agreements — three rounds of disengagement have been effected at Galwan, Pangong Tso and Gogra. But disengagement in Hot Springs is a sticking point, as are the Chinese army’s forward positions in Depsang.

China meanwhile,  continues to  build its border infrastructure, roads, bridges, airports and missile positions, in a possible attempt to enforce its unilaterally defined claim line of 1959 along LAC.


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