India-China Disengagement Process

STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS

India-China Disengagement Process

India and China have taken one more step towards restoring peace and normalcy on the LAC by disengaging at Gogra. It is, however, writes The Hindu “only one step, and the road ahead towards returning to the status quo of April 2020….. it has taken 12 rounds of military-level talks to see both sides disengage and put in place buffer zones in the Galwan Valley, the site of the June 2020 clash that marked the worst violence since 1967, Pangong Lake, and now Patrolling Point 17 in Gogra.”

The disengagement process at PP17 took place on August 4 and 5, with a return to permanent bases. The next round of talks will discuss PP15 in Hot Springs. The paper notes “Demchok, where China has transgressed in relatively smaller numbers than the deployments seen in Pangong Lake, also remains unresolved. Beijing has appeared unwilling to discuss the strategically significant Depsang plains, where the Chinese side has been blocking Indian patrols. The buffer zone model, where both sides temporarily cease patrolling in disputed areas, has appeared to work so far in keeping the peace. It is, however, only a temporary measure…….

 

Changed security dynamic along the LAC

“The next step will be full de-escalation, and a withdrawal of some of the new forward deployments that have come up close to the LAC. India has signalled that it is prepared for the long haul; its message: relations cannot return to normal without a full restoration of normalcy on the borders. While the strategic motivations of China’s border deployments last year are not clear, the tactical objectives are not difficult to ascertain. Since the 2017 Doklam crisis, China has consistently stepped up building new permanent airbases and air defence units closer to the LAC, with at least 13 new positions coming up since then, according to an analysis of satellite images from Stratfor. India has been moving to rapidly upgrade its own infrastructure to close the gap. The result is an entirely changed security dynamic along the LAC……..”

 

Hard to see it as a breakthrough

On the face of it, writes the Indian Express, the disengagement “at Patrolling Point 17A at Gogra Post in Eastern Ladakh is a positive development, but amid the continuing tensions in the larger theatre of the western sector of the LAC, it is hard to see it as a breakthrough of any kind………the situation in the Gogra Post area, that involved perhaps less than 50 soldiers on each side, was not as dire as it was on the northern bank of Pangong Lake, where a similar disengagement took place in February this year from an almost war-like posturing by both sides with tanks and troops facing each other over a distance of a few hundred metres.

“……As at Galwan and Pangong, a mutually agreed no-patrolling zone has been created, and the troops have fallen back to their respective bases. From the Indian point of view, this means that the extent of patrolling of the troops has shifted further inward from PP17A. It is hoped that the suspension of patrolling is only a temporary measure — the Indian officials have said it is — until a larger resolution of the differences on the border question takes place between India and China.

No de-escalation at Depsang area: The paper notes that in  the Depsang area, where Indian troops were patrolling upto the extent of PP 10, 11, 11A, 12 and 13 until February 2020, “are now being prevented from proceeding beyond a point that is about 18 kms inside Indian territory. There have also been reports of a massive build up of military infrastructure by China in the area, on its side of the LAC. Considering that the relatively flat terrain of Depsang makes it vulnerable to an offensive, and the Chinese posturing in this area poses a threat to the strategically important Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie Road, resolving differences in this area is what actually matters now. Unless that happens, de-escalation — the reduction of the total number of troops deployed, around 50,000 on the Indian side — in eastern Ladakh, and a breakthrough towards the overall reduction in India-China tensions, will remain elusive goals.”


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