India-EU: Strategic Significance of President Ursula Von Der Leyen’s Visit
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
The first-ever visit of the European Union (EU) Commissioners’ College, headed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, to India is considered an important development. The Commissioners’ College is the political leadership of the European Commission and is composed of the President, five Executive Vice-Presidents, a High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and 20 Commissioners representing member states, each with a specific portfolio. This is the first time that the College has travelled outside Europe.
A new India-EU bonhomie triggered by ‘dramatic global developments and a fast-changing balance of power’
The visit of the EC President therefore, in the view of Happymon Jacob (teaches India’s foreign policy at JNU and is the editor of INDIA’S WORLD magazine) “could potentially mark the beginning of a promising new era in India-Europe relations.”
India and EU both unsure about Trump: The visit took place against the backdrop of dramatic global developments and a fast-changing balance of power. Donald Trump “has put the 80-year-old Euro-Atlantic alliance under immense and unprecedented stress. The new US administration has clearly stated, and Europe has equally clearly understood, that Washington won’t pay for Europe’s defence going forward. Europe is on its own. The Indian side too knows that its ability to count on the US for its defence and security is, at best, doubtful and, at worst, misplaced.”
If India’s dilemma during the Joe Biden administration was to carefully determine the extent of its partnership with the US in the Indo-Pacific vis-a-vis China and other domains of security, “its primary concern, going forward, would be to determine whether the US has any interest at all in those domains. Put more bluntly, India has every reason to be concerned about the potential decline of its global profile in a Trumpian world…."
India, EU differences 'seem to pale in a world where the very presence of any order is doubtful’
Not too long ago, writes Jacob, “the EU and India were in some ways located on the opposite sides of a normative and geopolitical order in which the Europeans felt the need to moral-shame India and India found itself talking back. The two sides were talking at each other. But somewhat unexpectedly, both sides now find themselves sidelined, providing thereby a reason to engage with each other more openly, without the constraints of difficult history and scepticism. One of the reasons why India and Europe will grow closer in the days ahead is because much of the world they disagreed about no longer exists.
“Therefore, if the two sides can keep aside their differences and engage in a realistic and purposeful dialogue, based on common interests, we might see the emergence of a major voice in the international system. India and Europe might still not agree on their respective visions for the world order, but their differences seem to pale in a world where the very presence of any order is doubtful.”
Both looking for new strategic relevance: India and the EU — both major consequential actors on the world stage — “then, are looking for new strategic relevance and new strategic partners.” The EU chief, Von der Leyen told New Delhi’s strategic community and the diplomatic corps that ‘This world is fraught with danger. But I believe this modern version of great power competition is an opportunity for Europe and India to reimagine their partnership’.
On a more practical note, “the main content of the India-EU relationship is poised for a sea change in the years to come, from norm promotion to a security-defence partnership. In her keynote speech, von der Leyen announced ‘that we are exploring a future Security and Defence Partnership with India in the mould of the partnerships we have with Japan and South Korea'. This announcement is “significant considering its potential to transform the regional security order in the Indo-Pacific, even if the US takes a back seat.”
Ambitious free trade agreement deadline: The two sides have finally set a deadline — end of 2025 — to complete the ambitious free trade agreement. While a definitive deadline is important, Jacob writes “it won’t be easy to meet it given the several hurdles which need to be overcome before the two sides can sign it.” Top on New Delhi’s mind is the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) issue which has been a major stumbling block. Reports indicate that the European side is considering some modifications to concede to Indian demands.
Compelling reasons for a ‘strong and stable partnership’
Shyam Saran (former Foreign Secretary) also believes there are “compelling reasons for India and the EU to forge a truly strong and stable partnership. Both are multiethnic, multireligious, multilingual and multicultural plural democracies and each has a stake in the success and resilience of the other. They have a convergence of geopolitical interests. India has an abiding preference for a multipolar global order and so does the EU since each strives to uphold its strategic autonomy. India has always been supportive of a strong and relatively independent Europe because this would foster a multipolar world. For Europe, too, a strong and independent India should have been worthy of support, but this has been less salient over the years.”
New salience in the partnership: Saran also agrees with Jacob that the reset in India-EU relations “is driven by the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape……The delegation held meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and virtually his entire Cabinet. A joint statement issued at the end of the visit and the press conference at which PM Modi and the European Commission chief spoke on the importance of the visit and its outcomes reflect the new salience the partnership has acquired. There has always been a very wide-spectrum agenda for cooperation between the two sides, but it will now be pursued with much greater vigour.”
Cooperation is the defence and security sector: Most important is their “stated commitment to conclude a bilateral FTA by the year-end. Another potentially important area of cooperation is the defence and security sector. While the EU has been primarily a political and economic entity, it has more recently assumed a defence and security role, including the promotion of joint production of military equipment, joint acquisition and research & development. A closer defence partnership with the EU would enable India to diversify its military procurement and develop its own capabilities…..”
Why Europe turning to India rather than China
Saran examines the reasons why Europe is not turning to China instead, given its much larger economic and commercial relationship with that country.
“One, there is the recognition that India, despite some disturbing signs, is a vibrant, plural democracy with which the EU has a greater degree of political affinity than with China.
“Two, there is an apprehension, which India may share, that Trump may well strike a deal with China, which would strike at the very root of a multipolar order.
“Three, Chinese strategic alignment with Russia is deeper, more enduring than may appear at first sight. China has endorsed the Russian view on European security and this is spelt out in the China-Russia communique of February 4, 2022, concluded virtually on the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While India has a legacy relationship with Russia, it is not in the nature of a strategic alignment. There may thus be greater comfort in pursuing an India-EU partnership."
