India - Indonesia: Maritime Convergence
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
The newly elected leader of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto, is in India as the chief guest to India’s Republic Day celebrations. His visit is significant for historical as well as for geo-political reasons.
Seventy-five years ago, at the country’s first Republic Day on January 26, 1950, Indonesia’s first President Sukarno was the chief guest. The political convergence of the two countries then led to the convening of the Afro-Asian Bandung Conference in 1955, with India and Indonesia as its chief architects.
Today, writes Shyam Saran (former Foreign secretary) “the world is again in the grip of a dangerous polarisation; this time Asia, not Europe, is the likely crucible of confrontation and even conflict. On the other hand, one cannot preclude the possibility of tactical collusion between the two contending centres of power, the US and China — a so-called G2 — which limits the room for manoeuvring for countries like India and Indonesia….”
Opportunity for both countries to forge a strong and cooperative maritime partnership
Indonesia’s criticality to constructing a multipolar Asia is obvious, states Saran. It is an archipelagic state of over 17,000 islands stretching over the waters joining the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Its Exclusive Economic Zone is over 6 million sq km. India to its west and Australia to its east are like two book-ends framing the country. “It is with good reason that former President Widodo described his country as a ‘maritime fulcrum’. It is in India’s interest to declare its support for this initiative. But to serve as a fulcrum, Indonesia must have the capacity to police and administer this vast space. The scale of resources required for this is simply not available at the country’s current level of economic and military capabilities."
This is where “India has the opportunity to forge a strong and cooperative maritime partnership with Indonesia, going beyond the current joint naval patrols of their adjacent waters. India has greatly expanded its maritime domain awareness capabilities, thanks to its own satellite and long-range airborne surveillance capabilities and technological collaboration with the US. This can support Indonesia’s own growing capacities. There is a trilateral consultative forum involving India, Indonesia and Australia. This can enable India and Australia to collaboratively enhance Indonesia’s maritime capabilities. This will enable a strong crescent of surveillance, information-sharing and constrainment to be put in place in the Indo-Pacific.”
Concept of ‘ASEAN centrality’: Indonesia is the largest as well as economically and militarily the most powerful member of the 10-nation Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). But it is sometimes a reluctant leader in the ASEAN. Projections are that it may well emerge as the world’s fourth largest economy after the US, China and India by 2050. If Indonesia were to play a more active role in forging ASEAN into a more united, coherent and powerful entity, Saran believes “the concept of ‘ASEAN centrality’ may acquire strategic credibility. But even without the ballast of ASEAN, Indonesia would still be a consequential global player as it demonstrated through its skilful leadership of the G20 in 2022."
Indian BrahMos cruise missiles for Indonesia
Separately, India is considering a $450 million deal to sell Russian-backed supersonic cruise missiles to Indonesia. If the sale goes through, Indonesia would be the second country after the Philippines to acquire the anti-ship cruise missiles.
Indonesia is keen to have access to the missile technology so that it doesn’t face shortages in spares and components, the people said. Last month, India’s ambassador discussed a technology transfer offer with Indonesia’s Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin.
The first Trump administration pressured Indonesia to abandon deals to buy Russian-made fighter jets and naval vessels from China. It was part of Washington’s efforts to stop its biggest rivals from eroding US military supremacy and threatening its national security.
Prabowo, a former general, had played a key role in negotiating arms deals when he was defense minister under Joko Widodo’s administration. He and his cabinet colleagues at the time decided to scrap the deals with China and Russia to avoid getting on the wrong side of the US.
Emerging markets including Indonesia are looking to bolster their economies as Trump returns to office with threats to roil global trade. Indonesia recently joined the BRICS group of developing nations — established by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — which has positioned itself as an alternative to the US-led global order.
Prabowo is likely to expand military and maritime security cooperation with India when he makes his official visit this week. It is expected to be a continuation of joint exercises and port visits by Indonesian warships, as part of Jakarta’s focus on maritime security across Asia.
