India - Nepal: Dealing with Nepal’s Political Churn
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
Nepal’s transition from a constitutional monarchy to a federal democratic republic looks unending as well as chaotic. It has been marked by frequent changes of government, opportunistic switching of coalition partners, heavily politicised institutions, rampant corruption and frequent crossing of red lines, especially vis-a-vis China.
In the current episode, within days of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ forming a new coalition with former communist ally KP Sharma Oli after parting ways with Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress, there was yet again a switching of sides between coalition partners and foes.
KP Sharma Oli (now Nepal’s new PM) and Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress reached an “understanding” on sharing the prime ministership under a new rotational arrangement to ensure stability until the next election due in 2027, which is theoretically possible since between them, they command 167 out of 278 parliamentary seats as the two largest parties.
Former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda’s Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) was a distant third with just 32 seats, and though he is known for his tactical political gymnastics.
Prachanda’s China bias: A day before the no-confidence vote, however, Prachanda’s depleted cabinet approved a railway project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). During the few days that his alliance with Oli lasted, their Leftist-dominated government also took the astonishing decision to print on 100 rupee notes a map showing the Indian border territories of Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura as part of Nepal!
India, write K V Rajan (former Ambassador to Nepal) and Atul K Thakur (policy professional) “will be hoping that with the Nepali Congress as a lead member of the new coalition, such adventurism will be moderated.”
China could exploit the uncertainty
There is the real “possibility of external players exploiting the situation. Both Prachanda and Oli have used China, or allowed themselves to be used by it, to India’s acute discomfort, at various times in recent years.”
China itself has been “very open and active in urging the two main Left parties to be together, but even if this does not succeed, there is nothing to stop it from continuing with its unifocal mission of transforming Nepal into an anti-India, anti-West and dependable satellite in the new uncertain world order.”
India needs an innovative counter-strategy to China’s
Given China’s clear strategic intent, the two authors advise “India needs to devise an innovative and comprehensive counter-strategy, irrespective of the political complexion of the government of the day.
“It can, however, draw comfort from public opinion in Nepal that is now very alert to the long-term price of too close a Chinese embrace, risks of falling into a debt trap and limitations in terms of Chinese capacities in comparison to India’s. Traditional irritants like the 1950 treaty and the border issue need not over-influence future directions of cooperation……”
Important to engage with Nepal’s Left: It is also important for India to “engage intensively with Nepal’s Left, even as strong bonds with traditional friends continue. The Left has been in office in most governments since the Maoists were mainstreamed, for it does offer possibilities of alleviating traditional inequalities based on caste, gender or culture despite its disappointing performance so far. This is the only way consensus-based continuity in bilateral cooperation could be ensured despite instability.”
