India, Pakistan, China Friendship can be mutually Beneficial
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
India’s current nominal GDP per capita is $2,500, and its PPP GDP per capita is $11,000. If India grows at its current growth rate of 6.5 per cent, then its nominal GDP per capita in 2047 will be approximately $10,000. Its PPP GDP per capita will be nearly $ 44,000. Clearly, writes Sunil Saran (expert on energy and contributes regularly to publications in India and overseas) “a 6.5 per cent growth rate is not enough to catapult India into the league of an advanced nation such as the United States.
“At an 8 per cent growth rate, India’s nominal GDP per capita in 2047 is about $14,000 and its PPP GDP per capita is about $60,000. Therefore, at an 8 per cent growth rate, India is getting there. At a 10 per cent growth rate, India’s nominal GDP per capita in 2047 jumps to just above $20,000 while its PPP GDP per capita balloons to approximately $90,000, catapulting it into the big leagues. One will note that even a one or two percentage point change in the growth rate has a tremendous effect on the GDP per capita (both nominal as well as PPP).”
Trade with Pakistan will help India increase its growth
According to the World Bank, if India fully resumes trade with Pakistan, it could potentially add a significant amount to its GDP, with estimates ranging from a one to two per cent boost due to increased job creation, reduced costs, and enhanced trade potentially reaching a volume of up to $37 billion between the two nations. The current level of trade between the two countries is $1.35 billion. Trade ties have been frozen for some time.
Saran agrees. If India resumes trade fully with Pakistan, he argues “it should increase its growth rate to about 8 per cent…….Trade will benefit Pakistan a lot. Cost of living will go down substantially, and Pakistanis will gain access to the vast market that is India. It should also defang the hawks in Pakistan who want to destroy India. Both countries should focus purely on the bottom line…..”
India, China: potential areas of collaboration
Trade and economy would further develop if India, China can resolve their differences. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has recently extended a friendly hand to India.
India and China share a border of over 3,000 kilometres, a cultural and spiritual history of over 2,000 years, and urgent common challenges, in the view of Srinivas Madhav (transparency and equality advocate and author) make “their partnership not just strategic but essential…” Challenges faced by both countries “demand collaboration over competition….”
Creating employment for example, “is a big challenge that needs innovative policies. Joint ventures in manufacturing, technology and green energy could generate jobs…..Both countries face severe air pollution (e.g., Delhi’s AQI often exceeds 300; Beijing’s PM2.5 levels hit 137 in 2023) and water scarcity. Collaborative renewable energy projects could provide a solution.
“China has experienced significant viral disease outbreaks like SARS and the recent pandemic, with its dense cities amplifying transmission risks. On the other hand, India battles a rising tide of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs)…..A combined effort in genetic and medical research could offer innovative solutions. A proposed Sino-Indian Genomic Initiative could merge China’s biobanks (China Kadoorie Biobank) with India’s Genome Project to map disease pathways. The combined dataset would dwarf others like UK Biobank in scale and diversity, addressing health disparities ignored by Western-centric research.”
Collaboration in Information Technology is another area. “India’s I.T. industry, a $200 billion powerhouse (NASSCOM, 2023), excels in software services and outsourcing, while China dominates hardware manufacturing and AI development. Collaboration in the I.T. sector ~ including joint R&D hubs and tech parks could create high skill jobs and employ millions. …..”
