India - US: The ‘Good’ and the ‘Not So Good’
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to the United States, a year ago, U.S. President Joseph Biden offered to restart the decade-old plan to transfer technology for jet engines to India. The visit was marked by many such announcements of strategic and high-tech cooperation, with the US-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) considered a major success for bilateral relations that would set the stage for a whole new phase in ties.
However, one year later, writes Suhasini Haider (Diplomatic Editor, the Hindu) “the pace of the relationship has not matched those ambitions for a number of external and internal reasons. As the newly sworn-in Indian Prime Minister will engage once again with the U.S. President this week at the G-7 outreach summit in Italy, and senior U.S. officials are set to arrive in Delhi, the “good, the not-so-good, and what could-become ugly” (to paraphrase the Hollywood western) in the relationship must be studied closely.
The good
Over the past decade, “the growth is seen in strategic trust in particular, with the conclusion of all foundational agreements, a plethora of military exercises, growing inter-operability and coordination on maritime operations, not to mention the considerable purchases in the pipeline of military hardware. A broader mutual understanding has been sparked by many of the old irritants going away from relations: the de-hyphenation of U.S.-India ties with Pakistan, silence over old concerns on Jammu-Kashmir that once roiled ties, India’s increased engagement with the Quad (India, Australia, Japan and the U.S.) and the U.S.’s Indo-Pacific strategy, and shared concerns over China’s aggression have brought Delhi and DC increasingly on the ‘same page’, internationally.”
The not-so-good: Ukraine
Some of the ‘not-so-good' or work-in-progress areas writes Haider “lie in the areas of multilateral cooperation on global conflicts. Russia’s war in Ukraine has been one major area of difference……There have been some compromises: the U.S. has withdrawn its objections to India’s continued purchase of oil and other Russian exports and held off any talk of sanctions, while India has put over the annual India-Russia summit for two years now. It remains to be seen how the newly-elected Prime Minister manages engagements with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the next few months, with a possible meeting at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Kazakhstan in July and the BRICS Summit in Russia’s Kazan in October….”
India-U.S. cooperation at the Quad has slowed
India-U.S. cooperation at the Quad, according to Haider “has flagged somewhat. This has mainly been a factor of logistics. Mr. Biden’s decision to decline the invitation for India’s Republic Day in 2024 meant that the Quad Summit was foregone…..Planned visits by U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan were cancelled twice this year, at the last moment, due to the Gaza crisis), in turn affecting the iCET review. As a result, so has the visit by the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, Kurt Campbell (nicknamed ‘Quadfather’ or ‘Asia Czar’ for his role as Biden’s Indo-Pacific Coordinator), who has instead focused on ‘Quad-Plus’ meetings with the Republic of Korea and the Philippines over the past few months. All eyes are also on the Quad Foreign Minister’s meeting to be scheduled in Japan this year, but much will depend on U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken being available for it."
US concerns about Human Rights and Democracy
There has been no Indian Ambassador in Washington for months, "and South Block’s ties with the U.S. Ambassador in India Eric Garcetti have been somewhat strained after his comments on Manipur and human rights. The State Department’s comments on the state of democracy in India before the general election 2024 as well as consistent bad reviews for India in the State Department’s Religious Freedom report enraged India’s Ministry of External Affairs leading to the summoning of a senior US diplomat, and in turn widening the gap. Washington has been sounding excessively offensive and interfering and New Delhi prickly and reactive….”
Khalistan factor
Also, the attempted assassination of Khalistani separatist and U.S. citizen Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York, allegedly ordered by Indian security officials, remains an issue. June 2024 also marks a year since the plot in the U.S. was unearthed, along with transcripts linking the plot to the killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside Toronto, the same month (June 2023). Although details of the allegations became public only in November last year, “it is clear that the discomfort over the perception that India is behind the killing of foreign citizens in friendly countries had begun to seep into the relationship….”
Bilateral meetings offer opportunities
While a possible Trump presidency in November might resolve many of the problems between them, Haider concludes “it will most certainly introduce much more uncertainty to their ties as well. The opportunity for a Biden-Modi meeting this week then, followed by the visit by Mr. Sullivan to Delhi soon to complete the iCET review, as decided by the leaders during their phone call, is both desired and necessary…”
