India - US: Trump 2.0, Implications for India Mixed
Asia News Agency
Donald Trump’ bold outlook with focus on deal-making, cast him very differently from his predecessors. He is a polarising figure, wading constantly into controversy.
His approach to the ‘rules-based international order, is that he expounds an ‘America First’ doctrine, debunks multilateralism in global politics, and he trashes international agreements that he believes do not favour the United States. He prefers bilateral agreements over multilateral ones. In the Trumpian worldview, writes Nirupama Rao (former Foreign Secretary and Ambassador of India) “strategy revolves around the bully pulpit, strong personal branding, a willingness to take risks, unconventional deal-making, winner-take-all in place of win-win. Practical outcomes rather than theoretical constructs are emphasised.”
Trump’s MAGA will influence global geopolitics
His MAGA (‘Make America Great Again’) policy “will have implications influencing global geopolitics. This will entail a rise of protectionism in global trade, escalating tariffs and trade wars and increased economic uncertainty. Intensified competition with China where Beijing is clearly framed as an economic and ideological adversary will affect global stability, particularly in the Indo-Pacific."
American isolationism under MAGA (since Mr. Trump has clearly signalled opposition to U.S. direct involvement in external conflict), “can encourage powers such as China and Russia already united in their opposition to the U.S.’s power and influence, to expand their global footprint, using both economic and military means. MAGA could be synonymous with disruption beyond American shores and power realignments.”
Mixed outlook for India
The strategic outlook for India-U.S. relations under a second Trump Presidency is mixed, according to Rao. “Relations between the two countries have witnessed a steady evolution and multi-faceted growth over the last two decades across partisan divides. That trend is expected to continue especially since Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mr. Trump have a warm friendship. India has stressed constructive engagement with the U.S. as a key strategic partner. India’s growing geopolitical clout and a mutual interest with the U.S. in countering China (particularly because of the over-assertive Chinese military posture and transgressions across the Line of Actual Control) provide a strong impetus for a growing strategic partnership. India-U.S. defence cooperation will continue to strengthen together with partnerships in critical technologies (provided the new administration does not use export controls as pressure points) and business. Trade frictions could, however, be a complicating factor.”
Countering China
The countering of Chinese influence in the region by the incoming U.S. administration suggests that “groupings such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad or the U.S., Australia, India, and Japan), where India is an important constituent, will be strengthened. The maintenance of the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific requires the continued involvement of the U.S., even though India is cautious about an over-reliance on America and seeks to ensure its very own strategic autonomy. India’s Indo-Pacific vision stresses regional cooperation, multilateralism and multipolarity.”
Different perception in China about Quad: Here it is important to understand Different perception in China about Quad, As the China-US rivalry intensifies, the Quad’s potential to act as a check on Beijing’s ambitions remains under scrutiny. The consensus within Chinese discourse is clear: the Quad’s revival was primarily driven by concerns over Beijing’s growing influence. Yet, opinions within China’s strategic community, media, and social media platforms remain divided. Many question the Quad’s purpose, effectiveness, and future trajectory, raising doubts about its ability to serve as a credible counterbalance to China. Critics argue the Quad’s reluctance to explicitly name China in its statements reflects hesitance among its members to confront a rising power directly. Qian Feng of Tsinghua University’s National Strategy Institute noted that India, Japan, and Australia have been strengthening bilateral ties with China, which perhaps stops them from explicitly naming China and provoking a strong backlash. This cautious approach means the Quad remains a largely symbolic alliance, with limited tangible achievements that often fall short of expectations.
A commentator on Baidu identifies five key factors shaping the Quad’s cautious approach: China’s rise, necessitating indirect strategies to counter it; the unpredictability of US policies, which encourage prudence; Japan’s desire to improve relations with China; India’s ambitions to bolster its global standing; and Australia’s economic interdependence with China, fostering restraint.
Ning Tuanhui, an associate researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, suggested that while Trump’s second term could reshape US diplomacy and strain alliances, the Quad is likely to endure. This sentiment is echoed by Yan Xuetong, Director of the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University, who predicts Trump will retain many policies from the Joe Biden administration, with US-China tensions over trade and technology expected to escalate.
A minority view suggests that the Biden administration’s anti-China policies may be reaching their end. Trump, often regarded as more ideologically driven, is expected to placing greater emphasis on the tangible interests of the US. Consequently, he could reassess the Quad, potentially diverging from Biden’s approach toward China.
While Chinese discourse on the Quad’s fate remains divided, according to Sana Hashmi (fellow at Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation) “the grouping appears resilient enough to weather the storm of a second Trump administration. For now, it seems the Quad is here to stay.”
India’s strategic options
Irrespective of what Chinese experts think about the Quad, Rao suggests “India would do well to continue to emphasise its own strategic priorities, as shaped by history, geopolitics, national security, its economic interests and civilisational identity. Its border security, a strong defence posture, military modernisation, intensified counterterrorism efforts through strengthened intelligence, anti-radicalisation, and a continued focus on fighting cross-border terrorism, remain of central concern.”
Peace and stability in “South Asia are important, as also vigilance about containing and neutralising destabilising influences in the region, particularly from China and Pakistan. Security of the Indo-Pacific as a key maritime and economic passageway is a strategic priority. India’s partnerships with Japan, Australia, with the European Union and with The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, apart from the U.S. are essential to the balancing of China’s rise, to ensure India’s access to key technologies, to defence preparedness, and for its trade and economic development.”
Key for its strategic future, in the view of Rao “are its digital transformation, space exploration, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity for its digital infrastructure and building resilience against cyber threats from hostile nations and non-state actors. India’s priorities should incorporate a deployment of soft power in an emphasis on democratic and constitutional values, pluralism, humanitarian engagement and diaspora outreach. The relationship with Russia must continue to be in focus because of the complex and diversified nature of India’s strategic partnership with that country, and because of the counterweight it provides to the growing Sino-Russian alignment in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific.”
