India will Watch Biden Moves on its areas of Interest

India will Watch Biden Moves on its areas of Interest

While Biden’s primary focus has necessarily got to be domestic, in the view of Vivek Katju (Ex-secretary, Ministry of External Affairs) “America simply cannot abandon its global role. If it does so, China would attempt to fill the void amidst elements of substantial turbulence in world order.” America would have to simultaneously “restore the traditional patterns of the exercise of influence and power abroad. The executive decisions that Biden took immediately on entering the Oval Office shows that his administration has begun work in that direction……”

‘Biden’s approach to China and towards India’s immediate and extended neighbourhood will be of vital concern’

For example, Biden  has returned America fully to the WHO and to the Paris Climate Change Accord. “But, by now, the blatant ‘America first’ sentiment has gone deep not only among the fringe groups in that country; hence, a response to such swift abandoning of Trump’s approaches may invite a reaction. These are important issues in the Biden administration’s external agenda but they will be overshadowed by the most important issue—China.

“During his confirmation hearings in the Senate, Lloyd Austin, Biden’s nominee as Defence Secretary, said that China’s goal was to be a dominant world power. In this, he was no doubt expressing the view held by the American establishment. The question is how Biden will handle China’s aggressive quest for dominance. Austin argued for a whole of government approach but significantly also said there could be American-Chinese cooperation where it was in America’s interest to go in that direction. For India, Biden’s approach to China and towards India’s immediate and extended neighbourhood will be of vital concern.

 

Question mark on attitude towards Pakistan and Afghanistan

“……..Indian decision-makers will have to ensure that the shadow of the areas in which America and China cooperate does not fall on India. India will also have to be wary of the Biden administration's apparent desire to go back to military-to-military cooperation with Pakistan, and as indicated in Austin’s testimony, its open acknowledgement of the importance of that country in addressing the Afghan issue.

Human rights issues: “With Democrats holding the presidency and both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the Modi government will have to brace itself for interventions on human rights issues. It need not get overly fazed by these because they would not impact on India-America cooperation as a whole. However, they will give Indian opposition parties opportunities to embarrass the government……..”

 

India-US relations would remain on an even keel

Ronen Sen (former ambassador to the US) however, had maintained even before Biden got elected that India-US relations would remain on an even keel. “This was due to several factors. The strong bipartisan consensus in the US on this relationship, built painstakingly by both sides over two decades, was based on shared values and converging interests. This resulted in a general continuity of policies despite changes in government……..Despite the diametrically different personalities, perspectives and styles of functioning of President Biden and his discredited predecessor, it was evident that there would be strong elements of continuity in the India-US relationship since it had remained relatively insulated from major policy reversals in the previous four years……….”

 

Positive military cooperation under Trump

Under the Trump administration, India-US defence and security cooperation had undoubtedly accelerated, notes Sen. “Long pending ‘foundational’ agreements were signed. India was designated as a Major Defence Partner and, subsequently, accorded the Strategic Trade Authorisation STA-1 status. These made US arms sales to India more competitive and will facilitate greater inter-operability between the armed forces. Regional cooperation was strengthened in the Indo-Pacific framework. The Quad of Australia, Japan, India and the US was resurrected. For the last two years, there were regular 2+2 meetings of foreign and defence ministers. Intelligence exchanges were raised to new levels.”

 

Some inferences on altered policies concerning Pakistan, Afghanistan  ‘are premature’

During the recent US Senate confirmation hearings of the incoming administration’s principal foreign and defence policy aides, India figured in passing and in a favourite light.  Some inferences on altered policies concerning Pakistan, Afghanistan  “are premature since such customary policy reviews after changes of government are yet to commence. The continuation of a tough approach to China was evident, as was the desire to refrain from escalating tensions.” Also “a further hardening of the US policy on Russia, which seems to be on the cards, will pose numerous problems for us.” 

 

On trade, Biden will be less confrontationist

On trade, there were differences with Trump who took a hardline approach. The Biden administration, says Sen  “will be less confrontationist and more consultative in its approach, but we should not expect any substantive change in US positions. The signing of the envisaged “mini” trade deal of around $10 billion is highly unlikely, particularly in view of our farmers’ protests and US concerns with data localization……”

The Biden administration’s interest in the US joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership after aligning it to some of the higher standards of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. China is reportedly among those also interested in joining the CPTPP. If this happens, Sen believes “India, which stayed out of the low-ambition RCEP, will be totally isolated….”

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