India’s Dependence on Europe in Defence Matters Is Unrealistic
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Paris, Copenhagen and Berlin is considered India’s reach out in a post-Russian strategic future in Europe, or engagement with an emerging ‘third pole’ in international relations, according to Tara Kartha (Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi). However, Europe’s independence in defence, “a quality so necessary to emerge as a separate centre of power, has not just been absent, but may not emerge anytime in the near future, given ground realities. That, in turn, affects how India and Europe are likely to engage with each other.”
In this context, the Joint statement after the meeting the Heads of State and Government on 11 and 12 March, noted the ‘tectonic’ shift in European history, and declared that it would consider speedily Ukraine’s application to join the EU (made four days after the Russian attack) and provided directions on defence that were far more specific than before. They agreed to increase defence expenditures.
Significantly, it also declared that a stronger EU “is complementary to NATO, which remains the foundation of collective defence for its members”.
Following Ukraine, Kartha notes, several countries have declared an increase in the defence budget. The most astonishing turnaround was Germany’s pledge to ramp up defence spending in 2022 alone by €100 billion ($112 billion), taking this from 1.53 per cent of the GDP to above 2 per cent. Six others followed with commitments of a total of $33 billion so far. More are expected to follow. All this is for the good of the European defence industry. The trouble, writes Katha “is its wide dispersal and uneven size.”
Smaller countries in particular, are unlikely to benefit much from the jump in defence spending and will look to the European Defence Fund, pegged recently at 7.9 billion euros, for aid. This amount is not a lot. At the same time, the task of shoring up the EU national armies, now in a state of virtual inertness.
During PM Modi’s visit, Europe emphasised on non-defence initiatives
The sum of all this, argues Kartha “is probably seen in the various joint statements signed during the Modi visit. All—barring that of France—has a preponderance of green initiatives, energy and other topics, but relatively little on defence. Certainly, both Germany and France have committed to co-production and R&D……
“Clearly, a lot needs to change. Apart from urgently needed domestic reform, this seems a good time for India to engage in co-production with European countries, even as they expand their industry. Keep in mind, however, that production lines will be primarily aimed first at Europe’s own dire needs, assuming that they do follow all their declared ‘roadmap’. On the other hand, if it does not, any expectation of Europe rising as a ‘third pole’ is doomed to failure.”
Focus on trade, climate change, sustainable development, innovation, digitalisation, green and clean growth
K C Singh (former secretary, MEA) therefore, rightly notes that PM Modi’s discussions with Germany and France “covered climate change, sustainable development, innovation, digitalisation, green and clean growth, etc. The European Union, with a population of 500 million and 27 members, provides a huge trading, investment, and technology bloc, which is a natural partner for India….
“The trade between India and Germany is worth around $20 billion annually. But several new themes or redefined old themes can be seen now. There are several ‘Partnerships’ listed, covering ‘Shared Values and Regional and Multilateral Interests’, ‘Green and Sustainable Development’, ‘Political and Academic Exchange, Scientific Cooperation, Mobility of Workforce and People’ and, finally, ‘Global Health’.”
Focus on climate change
The focus on climate change and renewables as well as the need to keep global warming within the 2º Celsius limit of the pre-industrial period base was prominent in the Prime Minister’s discussions with Germany, France and the five Nordic nations — Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Norway and Iceland. With Germany, the new focus on ‘agroecology’, says Singh “is significant. This year’s early heatwave across India, having affected the wheat crop in Punjab, is a sign of adverse climate change-engendered events likely in future. Hence, the focus is welcome on the need to manage natural resources, the challenges facing the rural population and small-scale farmers.”
On Afghanistan
On Afghanistan, of greater interest to India, both Germany and France echoed the standard concern about humanitarian situation, the resurgence of violence, the curtailment of access of women and girls to education and the human rights abuses and terrorism. Both agreed to continue providing humanitarian assistance.
Germany invitation to PM Modi for G-7
Germany, as the G-7 chair, invited Modi to the June 26-28 meeting at Elmau in the Bavarian Alps. Much was made of this in the Indian media, notes Singh, “but the Germans have also invited Indonesia, South Africa and Senegal, three other prominent democracies. It is speculated that Indonesia, as the current G-20 chair, will be urged to disinvite Russia for the next meeting. Although India could dodge the Ukraine issue this time, as the focus could was on bilateral matters, that may not be so at the G-7 outreach….”
