Interpreting NSO growth data
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
National accounts data released on February 28, 2025 by the National Statistical Office (NSO) provide two sets of information pertaining to, first, revised annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP)/Gross Value Added (GVA) estimates for 2022-23, 2023-24 and 2024-25 and, second, Q3 2024-25 GDP/GVA estimates accompanied by the second advance estimates for 2024-25.
Implied third and fourth quarter growth: The third quarter growth of 6.2%, write C. Rangarajan (former Chairman, Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council and Former Governor, Reserve Bank of India) and D.K. Srivastava (Honorary Professor, Madras School of Economics and Member, Advisory Council to the Sixteenth Finance Commission) “is a clear improvement over the second quarter growth of 5.6%. In terms of sectoral performance, agriculture has shown a robust growth of 5.6% in this quarter. Manufacturing, however, continues to languish with a growth of 3.5%, although there is a marginal improvement from the previous quarter when its growth was only 2.1%. In the services sector, the trade sector, hospitality/hotels, et al. have also shown an improved growth of 6.7% as compared to 6.1% in Q2.”
The implied fourth quarter growth is pegged at 7.6%. This however, depends on the contribution of private consumption expenditure, the contribution of investment to growth and the contribution by government investment growth.
