No Light Yet at the end of The Covid Tunnel

Amulya Ganguli

No Light Yet at the end of The Covid Tunnel

Shakespeare’s warning that when sorrows come, they come not in single spies, but in battalions” is proving true in India. The Covid crisis is assuming such catastrophic proportions that for the first time in recent memory, there is fear of the collapse of the very system of governance.

With the number of cases crossing the 300,000 mark, there is a shortage of nearly everything – hospital beds, medicine, oxygen and even vaccines. Of these, the dearth of oxygen has made the Delhi high court urge the government to beg, borrow or steal” the life-sustaining air” to save the critically ill.

The Patna high court, meanwhile, has directed   Bihar’s human rights commission to carry out surprise inspections of the hospitals because the government’s inaction” in providing health care violates fundamental rights. With four other high courts taking note of the critical situation, the Supreme Court has intervened to declare a national emergency” and call upon the government to take urgent remedial action.

Yet, there is no light at the end of the tunnel because of the prediction that the number of cases will rise further by the middle of next month. Already, India is the world’s worst affected country with dignitaries like the British and Japanese prime ministers calling off their visits and countries like the UK, Australia, Canada and the United Arab Emirates suspending or curtailing flights from India.

A worsening of the situation, therefore, will not only place an intolerable burden on the country’s health infrastructure, but also ravage the economy further and be a public relations disaster for the government.

It is the mutation of the virus into deadlier forms which is believed to be responsible for the rising numbers. As a doctor said, the virus is becoming smart” enough to bypass the body’s immune system. However, since the vaccines do provide some immunity by at least reducing the severity of the disease, it has been decided to inoculate everyone above the age of 18 from May 1. But there is little chance of normal conditions being restored in the near future.

It is the semblance of normality, however, a few months ago when the number of cases started showing a downward trend which apparently made the nation lower its guard and open the gates to let the virus in. India then had patted itself on the back by claiming to be the world’s pharmacy, sending medicines and vaccines all over the world.

In that expansive mood, the ruling party at the centre believed itself to be on a roll, expending an inordinate amount of time and energy in   election campaigns. The prime minister, the home minister and others from the Union cabinet were busy attending election rallies as did their political opponents, throwing caution to the winds as thousands of people turned up.

These rallies in several states along with the religious gatherings on the banks of the Ganga undoubtedly led to the flourishing of the virus. It is also possible that individuals had become callous because of the belief that the worst is over and refrained from following the Covid protocol of wearing masks, maintaining a two-yard distance between themselves and regularly washing or sanitizing hands.

Even now, as the television pictures of the people lining up to vote in West Bengal showed, few cared to observe the social distancing norms even if they were wearing masks. The Indian Premium League cricket matches are also on, underlining a determined attempt to maintain an even tenor of life even in an atmosphere of doom and gloom.

Perhaps this is just as well, for the late evening game are a source of entertainment at a time when one cannot go to a cinema or a restaurant or even visit friends. As the cartoon strip, Peanuts, has said, this is the first time in history when the human race is being saved by lying in front of TV and doing nothing.  It’s a replay of what happened last year from March/April to October/November in the wake of lockdowns.

The shutdowns of those days are back, though in a limited form, and so the country is witnessing yet again the departure of migrant labourers from the big cities for their distant villages to avoid being trapped without food and shelter. Time will show what effect this migration will have on the economy as well as on politics.

The ruling party may have survived the impact of the earlier migration on its political fortune just as it did vis-à-vis demonetization. But will it be able to do so again when the dire condition of the health sector has exposed its frailties ?

What is distressing in these critical times is the sign that human nature remains as depraved as it ever was. As much is evident from the sale of life-saving drugs in the black market or the looting of oxygen cylinders by rampaging crowds. But there are Good Samaritans as well who are trying their level best to salvage the situation by helping the needy with regard to oxygen supplies and other requirements.

India has survived other calamities, including the Spanish flu or the Bombay Fever in 1918-20 which killed 17-18 million when the country’s population was 318 million. The partition of the subcontinent in 1947 saw two million deaths while an estimated 15 million were uprooted. There have also been famines throughout India’s history which claimed countless lives. There is little doubt that India will survive the present pandemic as well.

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