Prospect of a reduced wheat harvest
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
Above-average temperatures threaten the winter-sown wheat crop. With March expected to be unseasonably warm, the country’s wheat farmers ~ particularly in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh ~ find themselves vulnerable to yet another weather-induced setback. The looming crisis highlights a troubling trend, writes The Statesman: “climate variability is becoming a persistent disruptor in India’s food production, making it imperative to rethink agricultural strategies. The wheat crop, now at a critical grain-filling stage, is highly sensitive to temperature fluctuations. A premature rise in temperatures can shrink grain size, reducing both yield and quality. This was evident in 2022 when an unexpected heatwave forced India to halt wheat exports, exacerbating global supply concerns."
Reconsider its import policies: If this year’s weather pattern follows a similar trajectory, “the government may have no choice but to reconsider its import policies, despite existing duties aimed at protecting domestic producers. For the past three years, wheat production has struggled to meet expectations. Rising domestic prices, a reflection of dwindling stockpiles, indicate that another shortfall could have inflationary consequences. If yields are significantly affected, authorities may be compelled to lower or eliminate the 40 per cent import tax, allowing private traders to bring in wheat from overseas markets. This would be a notable shift, given India’s long standing effort to maintain self-sufficiency in food grains."
Need to make Indian agriculture more climate-resilient: Beyond wheat, other winter-sown crops like chickpea and rapeseed may also suffer under the rising temperatures, “further straining India’s food supply and rural economy. Heat stress can lower oilseed yields, affecting edible oil production, while reduced chickpea output could drive up prices of a key protein source for millions. A broader impact on multiple crops highlights the need for an agricultural strategy that is not just crop-specific but takes a holistic view of climate adaptation across the farming sector." However, the deeper concern is that the “recurrence of extreme weather events underscores the urgent need to make Indian agriculture more climate-resilient.”
