Rising Hybrid Threats
Asia News Agency
Anti-India hybrid threats are gaining momentum. Explaining the nature of contemporary hybrid conflict, Arjun Subramaniam (military historian and a strategic commentator) writes “hybrid threats (primarily non-State entities) attempt to gain an advantage over conventionally superior adversaries (normally nation-States) by targeting fault lines in multiple domains — diplomatic, informational, military, economic, political, financial, legal, and intelligence — and dissipating the State’s energies and attention before striking. Hybrid threats rarely succeed without ideological or extremist moorings and proxy support from another State with adversarial designs…..”
Hybrid threat in J&K: role of Pakistan Deep State
Terrorist encounters in Jammu & Kashmir point to their “increased willingness to engage Indian security forces with better weapons and improved tactical awareness. There is also a distinct possibility that well-trained Pakistan army personnel could be embedded in these infiltrating groups. Pointers from history suggest that whenever pathways for peace backed by electoral legitimacy have emerged in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), Pakistan’s Deep State has stepped up attempts to stoke secessionism and communal disharmony through hybrid actors.”
Threat in northeast: Bangladesh, Pakistan collusion
In Bangladesh, “the effusive outreach by Pakistan is primarily to ensure that an anti-India government is in place sooner rather than later. With its organisational acumen and grassroots influence, the Jamaat-i-Islami Bangladesh — burnished by support from the Inter-Services Intelligence — appears ready to whip up anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh and keep the pot boiling in hot spots such as Manipur through support to militant and terrorist groups."
Adding to the Bangladesh conundrum, Subramaniam states “the ongoing civil war in Myanmar and the porous borders all around have the potential to derail the progress made in many northeastern states.”
Actions of pro-Khalistan terrorists such as Gurpatwant Singh Pannun also “constitute a hybrid security threat with moorings in the political domain.”
While security forces have largely come to grips with the rapidly evolving nature of hybrid threats, “there is an urgent need to adopt a bipartisan approach to national security. Political posturing, rhetoric, and opening old wounds will only impede national security. The need to build credible covert capability and erode the operational capability of hybrid actors on their home turf will be key to India signalling that it is no longer a soft State.”
