US-India: Trump or Harris - India’s Relations on an Upward ARC
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
Unlike America’s allies in Europe and Asia who worry about the return of Trump, C Raja Mohan (visiting research professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore and a contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express) believes “India has strengthened its relationship with the US under both the Trump and Biden administrations. Delhi, therefore, has reasons to be confident about continuity in its ties with the US. Yet, change is the only enduring law of the universe, and Delhi must be prepared to deal with either incremental or radical changes within domestic US politics that could affect relations.”
India’s increasing heft
India’s relations with the US have been on an upward arc since President Bill Clinton visited India in March 2000. “The US is now the most comprehensive and consequential partner for India. China is a large trading partner but it is also the biggest contributor to India’s trade deficit. Delhi is also locked in a semi-permanent military confrontation with Beijing on its long and contested border. Russia is a major military partner, but the relationship does not have the economic or technological weight of Delhi’s relationship with Washington. Europe is a major source of trade, technology and capital, but does not have America’s geopolitical heft that can contribute to India’s national security objectives. Cutting across all this is the hugely successful five million-strong Indian diaspora in the US.”
India’s familiarity with the Republican and Democratic policy establishments
The Indian establishment’s intensive engagement with successive administrations, argues Mohan “means there is great familiarity with the Republican and Democratic policy establishments that populate the large number of important, politically-appointed administrative positions. This, in turn, is reinforced by the expansive 'Track 2’ engagements between the Indian and American strategic communities. Over the last few decades, Delhi has also engaged with the US Congress and built solid foundations of support on both sides of the aisle.
“The US corporate sector plays a major role in America’s engagement with the world. Thanks to the growing volumes of trade and deepening links between the tech sectors of the two countries, Delhi can count on backing from American businesses for the US partnership with India."
Harris on core issues concerning India - immigration, trade, technology, and Eurasian security
While Trump’s positions on global issues are well known, many critics see Harris as a ‘mystery’ when it comes to foreign policy. Mohan identifies four issues are of special interest to India — immigration, trade, technology, and Eurasian security. “Unlike Trump, who talks of drastic approaches to curbing immigration, Harris advocates an overhaul of the system to promote legal immigration and deter illegal flows in partnership with the Republicans in the US Congress. So long as the US needs to import global talent and the immigration reform focuses on a merit-based system, Delhi will have little reason for worry. Immigration is now a toxic issue in US politics and Delhi must recognise that there is growing illegal Indian migration into the US and work with Washington to address the issue.”
On trade, Mohan writes “Harris has attacked Trump’s plan to impose a 10 per cent tariff on all imports as a ‘national sales tax’ that will impose a massive burden on American consumers. That should bring some relief to Indian exporters. Harris is likely to persist with the Biden approach, which has much resonance in India, on building a ‘durable global economic order’ centred around 'resilient supply chains’ and ‘deeper trade with trusted partners’. On technology, Harris is likely to continue with the Biden policy of building advanced technology coalitions with key partners like the EU, India, Singapore, and South Korea. For India, Harris’s political roots in California, the world’s leading technological hub, her record in the Biden Administration as the chair of the US National Space Council, and her leadership on the national and global governance of AI are likely to be of great value in deepening the tech partnership with the US in a potential US administration under her."
Harris has been publicly critical in the past of the Narendra Modi: So, while Harris’s Indian ancestry serves as a reminder of the growing influence of the Indian-American community in the US and its ability to act as a bridge between the world's two biggest democracies, The Telegraph opines “she has also been publicly critical in the past of the Narendra Modi government's revocation of Jammu and Kashmir's special status…..Mr Trump's positions align much more closely with India's than is the case with the Democrats. Mr Modi has built a strong personal rapport with Mr Trump, whom he has described as his friend. Over the next few weeks, New Delhi will watch the election campaign closely, aware that it may need to recalibrate its approach to Washington based on the outcome of the vote.”
Challenges from Russia and China
The Russian question will however, according to Mohan “continue to be a complicating factor in India’s relations with the US. PM Modi’s visit to Kyiv last week underlines Delhi’s commitment and capacity to carefully traverse the Ukraine minefield between Russia, Europe, and America…..
“China’s challenge to Asian security has been a major source of strategic convergence between Delhi and Washington in recent years. The shared interest in building a multipolar Asia became explicit under Trump and acquired greater traction under Biden. There is nothing to suggest that this will change under a Harris administration.”
