India Alliance: The Leadership Crisis
Asia News Agency
The leadership issue in the INDIA alliance remains unresolved. West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, a few days ago, had proposed Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge as the bloc’s PM candidate. Kharge has so far declined the offer but the suggestion left Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar in the cold for he has had prime ministerial hopes. But, writes Sunil Gatade (senior journalist based in New Delhi) “he looks unlikely to be cut out for bigger things after the Lok Sabha polls. His failure to secure such a post so far shows the lukewarm attitude in the 28-member group towards the 72-year-old leader despite his being the longest-serving CM on the non-BJP side.”
Opposition showed unwillingness to have Rahul Gandhi as the PM candidate
Time will tell whether or not Kharge will be the Opposition’s PM’s ‘face’ against Narendra Modi. But by pitching for Kharge, the alliance clearly signalled their unwillingness to have Rahul Gandhi as the PM candidate. “It also means the allies have indicated the Congress should remain in the leadership role of INDIA for it to remain cohesive and competitive. The tail cannot wag the dog.”
Whether Kharge ultimately becomes the alliance’s top choice for PM is immaterial: what is important, according to Gatade “is that there is a leader in the largest party in INDIA who is looked up to by smaller players for the leadership role gives it much-needed stability.” Kharge’s latest remark that INDIA’s leader “will be soon decided at the alliance’s next meeting shows much churning is going on within the grouping to put its best foot forward by having a hassle-free leadership structure……”
Ambivalence on the PM candidate issue is better ?
One line of thinking in the Opposition bloc, states Gatade “is that greater ambivalence on the PM candidate issue is better, leaving the BJP clueless on how to take ahead its plank of ‘Who against Modi?’. This ambivalence itself means a different kind of politics: to give one message to those within as well as to the other side. The strategy of ‘more the merrier’ on PM candidates in the Opposition alliance could help its constituents fight decisively and unitedly -- goes one line of argument.”
At the overarching level, with the BJP at its combative best, whipping up the Ram temple fever ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the earlier the Opposition alliance understands the game of coming up with an alternative narrative and a compelling one and builds up trust and affinity towards it, the better it would be. Other things can wait.
BJP sure to win in 2024
As of now, therefore, writes Vivek Katju (former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs) “despite all the efforts being made by the Opposition parties through the INDIA bloc, it is apparent that the BJP under Modi is ahead in the electoral race. Modi towers over the entire Opposition’s leaders. Besides, in the Hindi-speaking states and western India, unless some entirely unforeseen development occurs, it is a near certainty that the BJP will be victorious in the Lok Sabha election. The question is whether it will do as well as it did in 2019. It is too early to make that assessment.”
The fact is that the “fortunes of the Congress cannot be revived unless it is able to make headway in Uttar Pradesh. It lost influence in UP more than three decades ago when its traditional voter base of high-caste Hindus, Scheduled Castes and Muslims abandoned it. Over the years, the Congress organisation has become ineffective in the state. The problem is that the Gandhis, in the past two decades, have not focused sufficiently on UP. These two decades have also seen changes in the thinking of the Hindus in the Hindi heartland, including UP. It has moved towards reviving past glory and doing away with what they consider historical injustices. The Congress simply does not know how to respond to these changes with sustained clarity.”
BJP must win South
Similarly, the BJP does not know how to win the South. Recently, Prime Minister Modi launched the campaign for the 2024 elections in the southern states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Lakshadweep. The inauguration of several large projects accompanied this. But this is likely to have limited impact.
The party requires more support in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, where it faces hostility. Kerala is ruled by Congress or Left-led fronts, while Tamil Nadu alternates between the D.M.K. and A.I.A.D.M.K. In Karnataka, J.D. (S), Congress, and BJP have taken turns in power.
The Southern states are unique: The primary factors that impact voters in South India, according to The Statesman “are caste, money power, ideology, cinema, and liquor…..” The BJP needs to come to grips with these factors. Also, there is the absence of prominent BJP leaders in the southern states. In its absence, the BJP is utilizing its resources and organizational strength. The impact remains limited. This is because the southern states have unique characteristics. For example, Kerala has a strong presence of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) while the Y.S.R.C.P. (regional party) currently governs Andhra Pradesh offering specific benefits for its people. In Tamil Nadu, the Dravidian Parties oppose the use of Hindi.
North and South divide
And significantly, the gap between North and South India is increasing with the latter making political capital out of it.
Issue of delimitation of constituencies: Many people in south India have a grouse about the delimitation of constituencies, as the Centre uses population as a yardstick. The southern states have managed population control far better than those in the north, and such their population as a share of the total has shrunk. Now they believe they are being punished for following the government’s instructions on population control.
Prime Minister Modi is attempting to change the perception that the BJP party is not aligned with the culture of south India, with limited success.
The Statesman suggest the BJP “must seek alliances and regain the support of its former partners. Therefore, the party must reassess its election strategy and develop a new narrative. If it fails to do so, the opposition coalition I.N.D.I.A., which has already established a foothold in the South, will become stronger and pose a significant threat to the BJP’s prospects in the region.”
