India - China: Worsening Relations

Relations between India and China are worsening.  The 13th round of talks has ended in a stalemate with Global Times, the English propaganda tool of the Chinese Communist Party, stating that India’s demands were unrealistic and “not in line with the real situation or its strength”.

It even alleged India was being “opportunistic”. The implication was that India was exploiting the China factor to draw closer to the United States. The talks had been preceded by an intrusion on August 30 in the middle sector at Barahoti by 100 PLA soldiers on horseback who proceeded to destroy some Indian installations. Then, on September 30, Indian soldiers confronted the intruding PLA soldiers near Yangtze and Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh. And as in the past, China objected to the visit by India’s vice-president M. Venkaiah Naidu to Arunachal Pradesh a day before the corps commanders’ talks. The outcome of all this was thus more confirmation of what India expected, rather than any surprise.

Bhutan, China border understanding: ‘unpleasant surprise’ to India 

Another surprise, writes K C Singh (former secretary, MEA),  and a blow to relations was the October 14 agreement between Bhutan and China on a three-step approach to solve their border issue. This  “came as an unpleasant surprise. The external affairs ministry of course maintained public indifference by simply noting it, while adding that it was part of a process ongoing since 1984. But internally there would be concern that any exchange of territory between Bhutan and China, as proposed in the past by China, may lead to greater Chinese entrenchment in the Chumbi Valley. Four years ago, in mid-2017, there was the India-Bhutan-China standoff in the Doklam plateau, which is located dangerously close to the Siliguri Corridor. In case of any Chinese military action in the eastern sector in Arunachal Pradesh, the corridor has to remain open to enable an appropriate Indian military response. China, contrariwise, would like to get close enough to be able to threaten the choke point.”

While India has maintained indifference, Chinese state media called the Bhutan deal “a snub”.  “It also deals a blow to Modi’s attempts to contain China and weaponise territorial disputes against the country. Bhutan does not, as India insists, perceive China as a ‘threat’,” said an op-ed published in CGTN (English-language cable TV news service based in Beijing).

The Chinese foreign ministry said the agreement’s target was to “advance the demarcation negotiations between the two countries, and work to strengthen the relations between the two countries”.

These series of episodes across the Sino-Indian Line of Actual Control, warns Singh “indicate that China is determined to tie India down on the South Asian subcontinent by applying pressure across the unsettled border as well as by weaning away the last reliable buffer, Bhutan. Nepal’s reliability in this regard is already suspect….”

China’s engaging with the US: alert for India

Also, there appears to be an attempt underway by China to engage the United States before the planned Xi-Biden summit before the yearend.  “It seems that China has realised that its across the board obduracy has created greater convergence between most of the states in its neighbourhood, which the US has been able to exploit. Is it then adopting a differentiated approach, which involves its engagement of the United States and a stiffening of its stand vis a vis select neighbours such as India?” Analysts say India should watch these developments closely as they could indicate whether the US can be relied upon or not. Each country safeguards its national interests irrespective of the impact it would have on its allies or friends.  Afghanistan was a classic example.

Strengthening the Arunachal sector

India has to thus remain vigilant and take measures to safeguard its position, in particular along the border.

For example, India has rightly strengthened  its surveillance at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Arunachal Pradesh sector using remotely piloted aircraft and other assets as part of a broad strategy to strengthen overall military preparedness to deal with any Chinese misadventure. India has also strengthened  its overall deployment along the 3,400-km-long LAC besides speeding up infrastructure development to gain a tactical advantage.

Informed people told the Hindu, that a “sizeable fleet of Israeli-made Heron medium-altitude long-endurance drones is carrying out round-the-clock surveillance over the LAC in the mountainous terrain and sending crucial data and images to command and control centres.

“Along with the drones, the Indian Army’s aviation wing has also been deploying the Weapon System Integrated (WSI) variant of the Advanced Light Helicopter Rudra in the region, adding more teeth to its tactical missions in the region, they said……..

“They said though the Heron drones were first deployed in the region around four-five years back, now the integration of surveillance has been significantly enhanced under the ‘sensor to shooter’ concept to employ military forces at short notice for any possible operational objectives.”

People in the know say the army  “is also procuring a fleet of Heron TP drones on lease from Israel that are capable of operating for nearly 45 hours at an altitude of up to 35,000 feet. The Heron TP drones are equipped with automatic taxi-takeoff and landing (ATOL) and satellite communication (SATCOM) systems for an extended range.

“They said additional roads, bridges and railway infrastructure are being built in the Arunachal sector considering their strategic requirement in the wake of evolving security dynamics in the region.

“The government is also working on connecting Tawang with a railway network as part of the decision to enhance infrastructure in the region.”

Bringing in M777 artillery guns: With the focus of  boosting its firepower in the eastern sector, Krishn Kaushik (Indian Express, Correspondent) reports the Army has upgraded its vintage air defence Bofors guns, besides bringing in the new Ultra Light Howitzer M777 artillery guns.

India had bought around 145 M777 guns, the first of which were inducted in 2018. Officials said that starting last year these ultra light weapons have been deployed in the eastern sector. Of the 145 ordered, over half have been delivered. The three regiments they make up are facing the LAC across sectors.

With upgrades, the guns “have allowed India much better defensive and offensive capabilities facing China in the east. China too, has been increasing its capabilities in the region.”

Taking cognisance of Chinese build-up

What all this means is that India has taken cognisance of an increase in the intensity of China’s military exercises and deployment of troops in the eastern sector.  The Army has enhanced the deployment of air assets, including unmanned aircraft, near the border with China.

India’s strategy of expediting infrastructure development in border areas can prevent China from gaining a tactical edge. Last week, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh virtually conducted the final breakthrough blast of the Sela tunnel in Arunachal Pradesh. The tunnel, whose construction is likely to be completed by June 2022, is aimed at ensuring faster movement of troops in Tawang, a strategically located district bordering China. With new villages having come up on the Chinese side, India can’t afford to lag behind in terms of connectivity and visibility. Overall, a cautious approach, guided by the bitter lessons learnt from the 1962 debacle and more recently the Galwan clash of 2020, can enable India to hold its ground against the formidable foe.

Stage for a permanent solution: The fallout of the increased deployment along the LAC, according to Lt Gen H S Panag (was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal)  “is going to be that the LAC will de facto become the border with no scope for any change short of a limited war — the probability of which is very low. In fact, it may set the stage for a permanent solution.”

All Neighbours Article