Opposition vs BJP: 2024 Promises to be an Exciting Election
Asia News Agency
With ten months left, the general elections promises to be exciting.
The fact that the entire political canvas divided into two groups met on the same day, July 18, in the lead-up to the 2024 parliamentary elections, writes Pavan K. Varma (diplomat, politician, and author) “was a first in the history of democratic India. The goal of the two groupings was different — for the Opposition, the attempt was to strive for more unity amidst often irresolvable diversity, because a divided Opposition helps the BJP; for the BJP, the need was to bring in more diversity to meet the challenge of a possibly united Opposition, by expanding the NDA, and welcoming back allies whom it had earlier considered dispensable.”
BJP accelerates Opposition unity
Opposition leaders “have finally realised that, notwithstanding their differences, they must either hang together, or each will hang separately. The BJP is itself responsible for creating this perception. The relentless targeting of Opposition leaders through the misuse of central investigating agencies, has created fear, panic, anger and a ‘solidarity of victimhood’ among them. Secondly, the blatantly unethical manner in which the BJP has destabilised opposing governments through defections enabled by money power or the threat of punitive action by the ED, CBI, IT, etc., has convinced the Opposition that the BJP will go to any length in the pursuit of political hegemony. Thirdly, the use of the Hindutva card, and the visible religious polarisation promoted by the ruling party to consolidate Hindu votes for electoral dividends, has forced its opponents to find an alternative and more inclusive agenda to counter it.”
Feeling of vulnerability in the BJP
The BJP, on its part, according to Varma “has reluctantly understood that it will need allies to bolster its strength if the Opposition unites…. Narendra Modi’s consistent personal popularity, his party’s and the RSS’s ground-level organisational strength, and a clear narrative of Hindutva, hyper-nationalism and verifiable welfarism, had given the BJP a certain sense of invincibility. But, today, facing a third-term anti-incumbency, there is a feeling of greater vulnerability. Hence, the need for the BJP to organise a parallel NDA conclave, for the first time after 2019….”
The fact of the matter “is that in spite of two resounding parliamentary victories, the BJP garnered only 31 and 37 per cent of votes in 2014 and 2019, respectively, the lowest ever for any party with an absolute majority. Its geographical support base is also rather narrow, largely restricted to north-west India, and the Hindi heartland. In south India, where there are over 200 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP, with the sole exception of Karnataka, is almost non-existent. This includes fence sitters like Jagan Reddy in Andhra, and Naveen Patnaik in Odisha. So far, both have cooperated — even supported — the BJP on crucial issues…..”
Challenges for the Opposition
Yet, states Varma “the Opposition has still a great deal to do before it can effectively take on the BJP. The biggest challenge is how to give a gaggle of conflicting parties the semblance of convincing unity, as against the stability promised by the BJP/NDA. A common agenda, or at least a minimum common programme is the first priority….”
Rising above the vices that characterise the ruling regime: In the thinking of sociologist Avjit Pathak, the opposition has to raise above the “vices that characterise the ruling regime.” These “can also be seen in many of these Opposition parties. The political violence and tales of scams and corruption in Bengal; the presence of limiting identity politics in the name of caste and ethnicity; and the absence of the democratic spirit within the party structure — these vices, if not eradicated, are bound to diminish the credibility of the Opposition parties…….There seems to be no easy answer to this question.”
Congress is the key to Opposition unity: But practically, the key to Opposition unity, according to Varma “lies with the Congress. Will it agree to forego its national aspirations — which it legitimately has as a pan-India party — to accommodate stronger players at the regional level? Even more importantly, can it perform better in some 200 seats where the BJP is its principal opponent? This is crucial, since this is the real catchment area of the BJP, where its strike rate against the Congress in the last two national elections was over 90 per cent,” recent Congress victories in Assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka notwithstanding.
Avoiding division of anti-BJP votes
According to the assessment of Anand K. Sahay (senior journalist based in Delhi), the trickier part for the Opposition is “how to reach satisfactory arrangements to avoid the division of anti-BJP votes in Lok Sabha constituencies. The first job is to identify such constituencies state-wise, and try to avoid potential one-upmanship.”
Bihar and Maharashtra: Even in states where the parties opposed to the BJP are already in an alliance, as in Bihar and Maharashtra, “the smoothness of the process of seat adjustments must be worked…..The wisdom of the party leaderships will be on test as these large states are also important for the BJP in the numbers game."
West Bengal and Tamil Nadu: In a very different category are “West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, where there is a single dominant anti-BJP regional party. In the former, will chief minister Mamata Banerjee be forthcoming in parting with seats and make a reasonable offer to the CPI(M) and Congress for the sake of keeping intact a larger ideological framework?"
Dominant anti-BJP parties in all states will thus, “have to adopt a ‘give and take’ outlook.
Tamil Nadu: This, writes Sahay is “perhaps the least problematic state for INDIA. Like in West Bengal, there is only one important regional anti-BJP player which runs the state government: DMK. It has had few difficulties with allies, the Congress and the Left, over the years.”
Kerala: In Kerala, however, “the CPI(M) and its Left allies and the Congress are entrenched rivals. Any serious friction between them on seats may help the BJP, which is way behind in electoral arithmetic but has gained sufficient following of late to make its presence felt.”
Uttar Pradesh: The INDIA parties face their “most severe test in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most significant state electorally, and is the BJP’s strongest pocket of influence after Gujarat. The main anti-BJP regional formation, the Samajwadi Party, has core strength, but it is weaker than before….”
After Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ (Unity March) yielded a widely perceived major shift of the minorities’ vote towards it, the Congress’ fortunes are thought to have revived countrywide, including in UP. A rising tide, writes Sahay “lifts all boats and associating with the changed Congress can benefit all its associates.
Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan: In return for accommodation shown in UP, the “Congress must make room for its INDIA partners from UP in Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan. In the event of a non-deal, the BJP will once again have the best chance in the nation’s largest state, although in today’s changed circumstances, the saffron party can’t be certain it can repeat its 60-plus score out of 80 in the 2019 election.”
This is mainly due to the widespread perception “that the appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP’s only vote-catcher, has slipped….”
Seat adjustment or accommodation, not enough to keep the Opposition united
But seat adjustment may not be enough to defeat the BJP alliance. According to Suhas Palshikar (taught political science at Savitribai Phule University, Pune, and chief editor of Studies in Indian Politics), seat sharing is not enough to keep the Opposition bloc united. “More than seat sharing, it is the resonance of their [INDIA]’s programmes and unity which will matter.
“Seat sharing is going to be a major impediment, but at the same time, it is of secondary relevance. That is because in most States, the Congress and some of the State parties are already in competition with each other, which makes seat sharing very difficult. Each party would obviously like to expand its own footprint in these respective States, and their political ambitions will come in the way of making adjustments with the other. There would be pressure from workers and also internal claimants from each party not to do seat adjustment. It is going to a tricky issue to decide for which seats there should adjustment.”
- Sridharan (Academic Director and Chief Executive of the University of Pennsylvania Institute for the Advanced Study of India) agrees. “From an academic, not political, perspective, in the first-past-the-post system, a party wins by getting the single largest number of votes at the constituency level. Therefore, vote pooling becomes an imperative at the constituency level, derivatively at the State level in a federal system, and at the national level. In a pre-electoral alliance, you are making coalitions under uncertainty. Nobody knows how much strength the potential partner or the opponent has on the ground. The system rewards getting the single largest number of votes, and a party is under the imperative to ally and add to its vote pool. A small swing in votes can lead to a bigger swing in seats. In that process, ideology and principles tend to get diluted and pragmatism tends to dominate. Now, what happens in States where they already have a long-standing alliance with other parties and share seats? It is difficult to change that ratio and to get their partners to agree to contest less seats. On the other hand, in new alliances, there is flexibility. I would see such negotiations playing out in a highly contested and conflictual way across States.”
BJP’s existential question
Nevertheless, for the BJP, according to Varma “the existential question is whether in the face of a more organised Opposition, it will win — like in 2014 and 2019 — an absolute majority on its own, or will its numbers reduce to 250 or below. If this were to happen, it may trigger tectonic changes in the BJP itself. It is no secret that many in the BJP and the RSS are less than happy at the style of functioning within the party, where the writ of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah is absolute, and there is little space left for inner-party democracy. The policy of unrelenting religious exclusion has also its critics, because many realise that while this may bring short-term electoral dividends, it is not in the interests of India — and the ‘Sangh Parivar’ (RSS family) — in the long run. Besides, it has to be seen how far Mr Modi is temperamentally capable of running a coalition government, where give and take is essential. “
BJP not taking the alliance lightly: wooing small parties
However, according to the assessment of Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay (Journalist, writer & playwright) “it is premature to assess the electoral potential of the opposition alliance, Indian National Developmental, Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). Only when the Opposition reaches a consensus on seat-sharing, a complicated exercise, can its potential to upset the current political regime be measured. But this formation has set alarm bells ringing in the BJP camp.
“NDA’s revival and decision to hold its first conclave after re-election in 2019 prove that BJP is not taking the alliance lightly. For a party that has long held that smaller parties join hands with the largest party of alliances only if its 'winnability' increases, the urgency with which BJP is wooing smaller outfits indicates the shoe is on the other foot……BJP's attempts to mollify partners indicate concerns regarding its prospects in the 2024 general elections.”
The urgency with which BJP enrolled new members into NDA, according to Varma “suggests the absence of an overarching narrative at this stage, unlike in 2014 and 2019. The inclusion of sub-regional and community-specific parties demonstrates that BJP wants to reinforce Modi's popularity. Some of these parties are either unknown outside their pocket boroughs or have questionable reputations.”
BJP also hamstrung by the contradiction over its dual tactics: BJP is also “hamstrung by the contradiction over its dual tactics. By drawing parties and individuals who are not enthusiastic supporters of Hindutva, BJP risks dwindling enthusiasm of supporters on the ideological fringe. This section is unlikely to opt for an alliance in which Congress features prominently. Yet, one must recall that BJP's loss in 2004 was principally due to this section's electoral aloofness.
