India - China: An Environment of Distrust Prevails
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
President Xi Jinping visited Tibet a few days ago. The last such visit by a head of state was in 1990. The long interregnum, writes The Tribune “was possibly in deference to the anxieties aroused across the border in India. It was also an acknowledgement of the total Chinese security control over the Tibetans, though winning their hearts has proved difficult. That may be the reason why Xi’s visit was kept under wraps and announced only after it was over. Besides touring Tibet’s cultural and spiritual capital of Lhasa, what would have raised eyebrows in South Block was his trip to Nyingchi, bordering Arunachal Pradesh.
“The two armed forces are already in the confrontation mode in Ladakh, also called the western sector. Does the Nyingchi visit, located near China’s super-dam project on the Brahmaputra, signal China opening the eastern front as well? The answer is not apparent……..’ Or “is it Xi’s typical bellicosity or a measured response to India’s presence in the Quad?”
The visit, in the view of The Tribune “may signal China’s bid to shift the focus away from Taiwan to Tibet, which is assuming greater strategic importance. Yet, India can hardly overlook the security aspect. The visit happened amidst the largest-ever military deployment in the Himalayas….”
Chinese tents on Indian side
Meanwhile, after a gap of three months, India and China held the 12th round of Corps-Commander level military talks at Moldo last week. The last round of discussion, which happened on April 9, did not yield any positive resolution.
The talks were held against developments in which the Chinese have erected tents on the Indian side of the Charding Nala in Demchok in eastern Ladakh. Senior government officials described the people occupying these tents as “so-called civilians”, and said that even though India has been asking them to go back, “their presence remains”.
Demchok has seen face-offs between Indian and Chinese troops earlier too. The two sides had agreed that Demchok and Trig Heights were disputed points on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) during meetings of the India-China joint working groups (JWG) back in the 1990s.
Later, following the exchange of maps, 10 areas of differing perception of the LAC were recognised: Samar Lungpa, Depsang Bulge, Point 6556, Changlung Nala, Kongka La, Pinging Tso north bank, Spanggur, Mount Sajun, Dumchele, and Chumar.
Besides these 12 areas that are either mutually agreed as disputed or where the two sides have differing perceptions of where the LAC lies, five friction points have been added to the LAC in eastern Ladakh over the last year, after the current stand-off began, The Indian Express quotes officials.
These five friction points are KM120 in the Galwan Valley, PP15 and PP17A in the Shyok Sula area, Rechin La, and Rezang La, officials said.
Meanwhile, the 12th round of Corps Commander-level talks are likely to take place in the first week of August, or perhaps earlier. The last Corps Commander-level talks to discuss the disengagement and eventual de-escalation in eastern Ladakh, where India and China are involved in a stand-off since May 2020, were held in April this year.
The talks have not progressed because India has been pushing for disengagement from all the friction points first, while China wants de-escalation, and for the additional troops in the depth areas to go back to their original bases, before the rest of the friction points are disengaged.
‘Situation is stable’: A senior government official said the “situation is stable” currently. While it is not yet “2019 level”, it is “much better” than last year, the official said. There have not been “any transgressions” by China since February, nor any face-offs between the two armies. “They are willing to disengage, but they like to negotiate,” the official said. Disengagement will happen, he said, “but it will take time”.
Troops from the two sides are currently “not eyeball-to-eyeball” anywhere, the official said. The delay in finding a resolution was because of the loss of trust, and that is the reason why both sides continue to have nearly 50,000 troops each deployed in the region, he said.
Sources said China has been rotating its troops in eastern Ladakh, and is developing “military infrastructure at a very fast pace”, including billeting, ammunition points, and artillery positions. In their depth areas, nearly four divisions of Chinese troops are positioned along the G219 highway that passes through Aksai Chin, connecting the troubled Xinjiang and Tibet provinces, the sources said.
India too has used this time to upgrade its defence works and infrastructure, and to induct new-generation equipment in the region.
Xi Jinping has ‘sized up the Indian psyche’
Abhijit Bhattacharyya (an alumnus of the National Defence College, and the author of China in India) writes “the Chinese PLA has dug in and will not budge from its newly grabbed positions since May-June 2020, and won’t go back to the pre-April 30, 2020 status quo in Ladakh-Tibet, despite several rounds of military/diplomatic talks. To make things worse, despite the loss of Indian territory (which it won’t admit), New Delhi still lets the Dragon make money from the Indian market through questionable investments, strategic infra penetration and dismantled indigenous industry. The Communist Party of China, under Emperor Xi Jinping, has pretty accurately sized up the Indian psyche and worked out how to turn it to the Hans’ advantage.”
‘No agreement on future sequence of action’
Recalling recent events, Harsha Kakar (retired Major-General) writes the 11th round of IndoChina talks were held on 9 April. There was no joint statement issued at the end of the talks, as had been the norm earlier.
It was evident, says Kakar that there were disagreements. Following this was the 22nd meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on Indo-China border affairs (WMCC), held on 25 June. The Ministry of External Affairs statement issued at the end of the meeting stated, “Both sides agreed on the need to find an early resolution to the remaining issues along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh keeping in view the agreement reached between the two Foreign Ministers in September 2020.
As agreed, the 12th round of the Senior Commanders meeting did not take place. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met his Chinese counterpart on the side lines of the SCO summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan in mid-July. After the interaction both sides issued their own version of what was raised. While Jaishankar conveyed Indian anger at the Chinese reluctance to disengage, the Chinese perception is that the current stalemate should be accepted as the new normal.
The net result in the view of Kakar, is that there is “no agreement on future sequence of action. India seeks disengagement followed by de-escalation, while China seeks the reverse. China is hoping that if it continues with discussions while retaining its present troop dispositions, India may accept status quo. That is unlikely to happen. The Chinese attitude has led to India hardening its stand on matters which the Chinese consider forbidden territory.”
In this environment of distrust, PM Modi congratulated the Dalai Lama on his birthday angering the Chinese. Significantly, India did not convey greetings to China for its CCP centenary.
Meanwhile, in Ladakh, both nations have reoriented their forces. India has deployed an additional division and enhanced its strike capabilities to counter any Chinese misadventures. This has led to China constructing accommodation to house additional forces in Aksai Chin, “which remains its Achilles’ Heel as its main highways linking the mainland to Tibet and Xinjiang traverse this region. This can be interdicted by Indian forces. For China, securing these highways has now become a priority. It is aware that India is no longer a pushover and could rebound with its own offensive designs…….
“China, which had never maintained forces in the region, is now being compelled to construct billets for permanent deployment to secure its lines of communications. China is no longer confident that its major arteries will remain secure. It would perpetually have this concern, which is why it is deploying additional troops in Ladakh……”
