India - Myanmar: India’s Policy Options
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
Myanmar has announced the fourth extension of the ‘emergency’ for another six months. Simultaneously, military regime decided to release several political prisoners and even reduced the sentences imposed on Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the deposed President Win Myint. Ms. Suu Kyi was also moved out of prison to house arrest.
Extension of emergency; delayed elections
The extension of the emergency, writes Chetan Rana (doctoral candidate at the Centre for International Politics, Organization and Disarmament, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi) “further delays the elections proposed by the military. Min Aung Hlaing, the coup orchestrator, justified the extension due to the failure to establish ‘normalcy’ in large parts of the country. However, it is this pursuit of ‘normalcy’ that has resulted in suffering, with ACLED, or the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (a disaggregated data collection, analysis, and crisis mapping project) reporting that Myanmar civilians witness two and a half times more violence than those in Afghanistan.
“The military regime’s relentless campaign includes an average of over 30 airstrikes per month in 2023. Surprisingly, the Tatmadaw (the military of Myanmar) exerts real control in only 30%-40% of the territory….”
Reducing Suu Kyi’s sentence, a symbolic gesture
The junta’s decision to reduce Suu Kyi’s sentence, writes Rana “is not a step towards democracy. Despite being the Tatmadaw’s biggest rival, Ms. Suu Kyi has demonstrated a willingness to compromise and work with the military. She remains the rallying point for political change in Myanmar despite international criticism over her position/stand and role in the Rohingya persecution. Some protest may ease with these symbolic gestures. But more importantly, Ms. Suu Kyi’s return could potentially split the National Unity Government (NUG)-led resistance. A young generation of activists is leading the NUG and its cooperation with ethnic armed organisations and even reconciliation with Rohingyas. This could all change if Ms. Suu Kyi is back in active politics.”
These symbolic gestures by the junta, “may ease some protests and allow the military to claim progress over international and regional appeals, possibly leading to a lifting of sanctions and revived economic prospects. Additionally, they offer political bandwidth and a face-saving token to actors engaging with the junta, such as India.”
Indian policy presents a paradox
During COVID-19 pandemic and the coup, India took a proactive approach by providing food and vaccine assistance. However, the plight of the Myanmarese people “seems to have faded from memory……Communities along the border have already defied the Home Ministry by providing shelter to the refugees. Concerns over trafficking and drug smuggling in Myanmar led to India suspending the Free Movement Regime in September 2022. India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar raised the issue of infrastructure projects and stability in border areas with his Myanmar counterpart Than Swe in Bangkok in July, on the sidelines of the Mekong Ganga Cooperation (MGC) meeting. India has also supported the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ ‘Five-Point Consensus’. Nevertheless, India’s policy towards Myanmar presents a paradox.”
The China factor: India’s official rhetoric on commitment to democracy in Myanmar, writes Rana “is in contrast with its policy framed through the lens of its security concerns in north-east India and relations with China. For example, India’s announcement of the Sairang-Hmawngbuchhuah railway project near the Myanmar border, under India’s Act East Policy, aims to counter China’s railway access in Myanmar through Yunnan and the ambitious China-Myanmar Economic Corridor."
Increase in India’s arms supply to the military: Disturbingly, “sources such as Justice for Myanmar, SAC-M, and the United Nations Special Rapporteur have reported an increase in India’s arms supply to the military since the coup. Arming the Tatmadaw not only undermines India’s position on restoring democracy but also adds fuel to the fire, which spills over regularly across the border.”
An approach to pursue
Regarding India’s policy options, Rana states “relaxation of Ms. Suu Kyi’s prison sentence may provide an opportunity for India to engage with her and pro-democracy actors, including the NUG. Additionally, the government and media must avoid blanket securitisation and profiling of incoming refugees, many of whom have ties of kinship in India….”
