Quad vs Possible China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran Grouping
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
As the Quad democracies — the United States (US), India, Japan and Australia — prepare for a summit of the top leaders in Washington later this year, a rival quadrilateral grouping led by principal challenger China is in the making, with Russia, Pakistan and Iran.
China-Russia relationship: The China-Russia relationship, writes Rajiv Bhatia (distinguished fellow, Gateway House and a former ambassador. He specialises in matters pertaining to Quad and the Indo-Pacific) “has gone from strength to strength. The two define it as a comprehensive strategic partnership that can be turned into an alliance, if necessary…..
China, Pakistan relationship: “Then there is China’s relationship with Pakistan, fuelled by a shared hostility towards India, which are of a different level of depth altogether…….China recognises the central geostrategic location of Pakistan, and its value in keeping India pinned down to being only a regional player. Strategic congruence, economic benefits and close security cooperation make up this relationship…….”
At the same time, “Islamabad is now also enmeshed in working out its options in a post-US Afghanistan where it needs to reconcile its interests not only with China but also with Iran, Russia, Central Asian neighbours, and, to some extent, India. Pakistan will remain China’s steadfast partner, but given its long-standing relationship with the US, it will also be responsive to Washington’s overtures and offers of assistance in both the military and economic domains.”
China-Iran relationship: China-Iran relations, writes Bhatia “marked by a shared hostility towards the US, are seeing signs of consolidation. In March, the two countries agreed to a 25-year commitment to enhance comprehensive economic cooperation. At the heart of this deal is China’s plan to invest $400 million in Iranian projects against a long-term supply of oil and gas to China……” This investment plan, says Alex Vatanaka, senior fellow at Frontier Europe Initiative, can be Iran’s “insurance policy” for economic renewal if US sanctions continue and the US-China fight escalates.
Under the circumstances “the task then for the democratic Quad sherpas is delineated — use all available levers to weaken China’s relations with its three partners….”
India, Russia remain strong friends
India is however, not without its friends. Even as Russia gets closer to China, in three weeks, writes KP Nayar (Strategic Analyst) “there will be celebrations in Moscow and in New Delhi marking the golden jubilee of the signing of that historic document.
PM Modi and Russian President Putin have recently agreed to set up a 2+2 ministerial forum. In preparation for Putin’s visit to India later this year, the first meeting of Russian and Indian foreign and defence ministers will convene shortly. Other ministerial meetings will take place in the second half of this year and focus on defence, economy and trade.
“Optimism is high that the Putin-Modi summit will take place this year in person. If that happens, Putin’s will be the first high level, big power visit to New Delhi since Covid-19 descended on various countries…….”
Unlike some other countries, Bhatia says “Russians do not have an attitude of entitlement from Indians, despite the massive support they have given India since Independence in every sphere. History has taught us that Russians will not foment a ‘colour revolution’ in India. Nor will they seek regime change through interference in India’s sovereignty. That cannot be said with any certainty about many other countries, which are supposedly New Delhi’s friends. None of India’s other friendships has shown the strength of resilience in relations with Russia.”
The paradox, though, is that precisely because it has held so steady, this relationship is sometimes taken for granted.
