India - US: Trump may be Favourable on Security, Not Trade
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS

There is every reason to believe that Trump would be inclined to view India more favourably than others. There are several reasons for this, according to M.K. Narayanan (former Director, Intelligence Bureau, a former National Security Adviser, and a former Governor of West Bengal).
The Trump-Modi bonhomie
The personality of Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, “are in many ways not dissimilar; both demonstrate a ‘no nonsense’ approach to issues and problems and also appear to see them through a common prism. Both are powerful leaders who do not allow their political aides and others to change or alter the trajectory of their beliefs under any circumstances. Their dislike for China is visceral…..
“During Mr. Trump’s previous tenure, both he and Mr. Modi seemed to arrive at a common understanding on issues and concerns affecting the Asia-Pacific region. Little has changed since. If anything, the emphasis on cooperation between the two countries in defence, trade and counter-terrorism has only increased. On his previous visit to India as President, Mr. Trump had made a specific mention of the $3 billion military deal that existed between the two countries.
“…..Mr. Trump is certain to be gratified that one of his first acts would be to sign a $1.17 billion deal for equipping MH-60R helicopters. He would also be happy that India has firmed up its relationship with the Quad (comprising Australia, Japan, the U.S. and India), which is perceived as an anti-China alliance, even though India does not per se share the view that it is a security alliance.”
Trump will attempt to break the Russia-China alliance
Indian policy makers should also be aware that a stronger America, led by Trump, wants to tempt both Russia and China into seeking separate agreements with Washington. This dynamic, writes C Raja Mohan (contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express) “might allow Trump to exploit divisions between Moscow and Beijing. However, sceptics question the feasibility of this approach, pointing to the deepening economic ties and shared interests of Moscow and Beijing in countering the West. To be sure, there is continuing anti-American bravado in both Moscow and Beijing. Nonetheless, it is realistic to assume both Putin and Xi will prioritise their bilateral interests with the US over the building of a unified front against Washington.” And "regardless of the outcome, Trump will undoubtedly attempt to fracture the Russia-China alliance.”
Historically, Russia and China have oscillated between alignment and betrayal over the past eight decades. In the 1950s, they were ideological allies against American imperialism, but by the 1970s, both sought separate deals with the US, accusing each other of betrayal. By the late 1990s, they had rekindled their partnership to counter Washington.
India’s preference: Mohan speculates whether “Trump possess the diplomatic acumen to divide the alliance between Russia and China? Delhi is not in a position to influence the outcome of the new efforts by Trump to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing. Any deal that the US might want to make with Russia or China will involve the resolution of many complex issues. But does Delhi have a preference? Yes, of course! India would be pleased to see a reconciliation between Moscow and Washington on European security issues. That will make it easier to construct a ‘multipolar Asia'. But India has no reason to want a US-China deal that might produce a ‘bipolar Asia’.”
The many challenges of trade
Other than security, India’s preference will be a smooth transition in terms of trade. In his first term, Trump was tough with India, raising tariffs on steel and eliminating the generalised system of preferences (GSP), a preferential window that many Indian exporters used to get their goods across to the United States. While saying nice things about India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump has indicated that his trade negotiators would again take a close look at India’s tariffs.
The return of President Trump, writes Sanjaya Baru (economist, a former newspaper editor, a best-selling author, and former adviser to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh) “is not the only challenge India is facing on its foreign trade front. To begin with, India has a structural imbalance in foreign trade, especially merchandise trade, that it has not been able to deal with satisfactorily.
"This is that on the one hand it enjoys a surplus on the trade account with the United States, and this irritates the US; and, on the other hand, it is burdened by a huge and rising trade deficit with China…..The war in the Middle East will continue to exert pressure on global crude oil and food prices. There are then new concerns emerging relating to climate change and carbon trading.”
Taken together, "trade policy confronts many challenges.” While President Trump will pose a challenge on the foreign trade front, “he is not the only bump. Domestic factors continue to restrict Indian trade competitiveness.” The “problem for Prime Minister Narendra Modi is that he is stuck between trade protectionists within the RSS-BJP fold and the liberalisers among the economists his office has hired for various jobs in the government…..”