Strategy for India in Times of Global Tectonic Shifts
Asia News Agency
A group of economists, academics, security analysts and former diplomats like Yamini Aiyar, Sunil Khilnani, Prakash Menon, Nitin Pai, Ajit Ranade, Srinath Raghavan, and Shyam Saran - supporters of Non-Alignment 2.0 - have been prompted by tectonic shifts in India’s internal and external environment to take another look at India’s path to power in a world between orders.
The outcome of their conversations is a discussion paper hosted on The Centre for Policy Research and Takshashila Institute websites called India’s Path to Power; Strategy in a World Adrift.
The key premise of the paper, in the words of Shyam Saran (Former Foreign Secretary and Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research) “is that we are living through a period of rapid geopolitical, economic and technological shifts which has heightened risks and uncertainties for India’s policy-makers and has also created new opportunities for the country to enhance its economic prospects and its diplomatic options. The current decade will be critical to determining India’s ability not only to preserve its strategic autonomy but also to expand it. Strategic autonomy refers to the capacity of the state to make relatively independent choices on issues of vital interest to the country and this is the hallmark of a great power.”
The world as of today
Shivshankar Menon (Visiting Professor at Ashoka University; also a former National Security Adviser and Foreign Secretary) presents below a summary of the outcome of the conversations among these policy thinkers.
The world today is adrift. “We are neither in a bipolar Cold War nor in a multipolar world, though perhaps tending towards a world of several power centres. We are in a world between orders. The lack of a coherent international response to the COVID-19 pandemic is proof of an absence of international order and of the ineffectiveness of multilateral institutions. So is the ineffective international response to climate change and other transnational threats.
“Secular stagnation in the global and Indian economies and a retreat from globalisation, the regionalisation of trade, a shifting balance of power, the rise of China and others, and structural China-United States strategic rivalry have shifted the geopolitical and economic centres of gravity from the Atlantic to Asia……”
India, China relations - a mix of confrontation and cooperation
Over the next decade, policy experts “expect Asia to remain the cockpit of geopolitical rivalries, and that the U.S. remains the most formidable power, though its relative power is declining……We see a slim prospect of Chinese hegemony in Asia, but expect her profile and power to continue expanding, particularly in our periphery. The result is likely continued friction, some cooperation, and quasi-adversarial relations between India and China, which others will take advantage of. As neighbours and in the present situation, a mix of confrontation and cooperation is likely to continue to mark India’s relations with China.
India’s challenges, opportunities
“The uncertainty and changing geopolitical environment clearly pose considerable challenges to Indian policy but also throw up certain opportunities, enhancing our strategic options and diplomatic space, if we adjust policies internally and externally, particularly in the subcontinent. Increasing security congruence with the U.S. could enable growing cooperation in fields significant for India’s transformation: energy, trade, investment, education and health. Other areas in which India and the U.S. could increase cooperation are: climate change and energy, on tech solutions for renewable energy, and on digital cooperation. Several middle powers are now India’s natural partners. There is also an increasing possibility of working with partners in the developing world building broader coalitions on issues of common interest. This time of transition between orders is also when new standards and norms are being developed, particularly in the digital space. India can and must be present at the creation. There are opportunities in other domains as well. At sea, the balance is today more favourable to us than before, possibly more so than on the continent. We suggest the creation of a Maritime Commission, a Bay of Bengal Initiative with partner countries, and increasing what we do with South East Asia in maritime security, cybersecurity and counter-terrorism. We should aim for multipolarity in Asia.”
The way forward for India
The way forward suggested by the experts “is based on the core strategic principles in Non-Alignment 2.0 which are still relevant: independent judgement, developing our capacities, and creating an equitable and enabling international order for India’s transformation. Today’s situation makes India’s strategic autonomy all the more essential.
“At the same time, we must adjust to changing circumstances. We have no choice but to engage with this uncertain and more volatile world. One productive way to do so would be through issue-based coalitions including different actors, depending on who has an interest and capability.”
‘Self-strengthening as an absolutely essential’
The experts also “suggests several steps that we can take in India to ensure that India’s role and influence abroad continue to serve the task of transforming India. Economic policy must match political and strategic engagement. Globalisation has been central to India’s growth. A more active regional and international role for India is incompatible with a position on the margins of the global economy. Self-reliance in today’s world and technologies can only be realised as part of the global economy. We should not imitate China’s claims to being a civilisational state and its adoption of victimhood. Instead we should affirm our own strength and historic national identity.
“In sum, we see self-strengthening as an absolutely essential precondition as also safeguarding the foundational sources of India’s international influence…..”
India should be back on a high growth trajectory
Saran writes describes self-strengthening and the way forward thus: “An indispensable requirement to charting India’s path to power is getting the country back on a high growth trajectory. It is the substance of economic muscle rather than mere posture of strength which will expand room for manouevre in an era of geopolitical contestation. This requires not only sustaining but also expanding the outward orientation of the economy and its becoming part of both regional and global supply chains. Atmanirbhar Bharat (self reliance) must not mean a relapse into a high-cost and low-quality economy which prevailed before the 1990s. India’s future as a great power requires its integration with the regional and global economy and India must position itself as the engine of growth for the entire subcontinent. The Neighbourhood First policy needs to be underpinned by regional economic integration and SAARC should be utilised as an important platform for achieving this, even if Pakistan does not cooperate. Sidelining SAARC carries the risk of other member countries inviting China to be a full member which will only serve to complicate the security challenge for India. China has already set up a grouping consisting of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka for cooperation with China on regional connectivity and development. India could become a preferred partner to its South Asian neighbours in their pursuit of social and economic development, drawing upon the advantage of proximity, the size of the Indian market and the deep cultural affinities that bind the people of the subcontinent together.
“India is at a stage of its development cycle when it needs large infusions of capital and technology. India can leverage its benign partnerships with the key knowledge and financial centres of the world, in particular, the US, Europe and Japan, to build a stronger and modern economy. The evolving geopolitical situation places India in a sweet spot because of concerns about a rising challenge from China. Recent domestic developments in China, with growing hostility towards its hitherto vibrant private sector, is raising uncertainties and fears about the safety and viability of western investment in China. India’s economy alone offers a scale comparable to China. This would help transform India into one of the most dynamic and modern economies by the end of the current decade. The critical policy decisions to achieve this must be taken now.”
