The Pakistan dimension in J&K talks

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s interaction with mainstream political leaders of Jammu and Kashmir and the promise  to initiate the political process in the state, is an important development because writes Vivek Katju, former diplomat, this “concerns only Indian politics……J&K has an external dimension from India’s viewpoint because of Pakistan’s illegal and forcible control over Indian territory. Pakistan considers J&K as disputed and irrationally went all out to build international opinion against the constitutional developments but with practically no success. At the same time, there was disquiet, even if muted, in some global quarters at the administrative steps that accompanied the constitutional changes.

“In sum, therefore, Modi’s step to talk to the mainstream political players of J&K will attract favourable attention in the West and will be welcomed by the Biden administration. More importantly, the point for consideration is if it is a part of the quiet and out-of-sight contacts between India and Pakistan which resulted in the February ceasefire along the Line of Control and the international border in J&K. The ceasefire has held and it would seem that infiltration levels are down. Further, while both countries have been reiterating their known positions on long-standing as well as current issues, both governments are taking care to tone down the rhetoric……..”

Katju understands  “that the pro-contact elements in the Pakistani army, including army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, and Imran Khan want India to take some steps in J&K to show to their critics — and there is disquiet in sections of the army as well as the political class — that their endeavours with India are yielding results. At a minimum, they want the restoration of statehood to J&K and an indication that India has no intention to change the demographic character of the Kashmir Valley……”

India, on the other hand,  wants  “Pakistan to turn its back on terrorism. Unless Pakistan does so, it is impossible for a peaceful and stable relationship to be established.” Since this looks unlikely, what may “take place in the coming months, if not earlier, is a return of high commissioners and the restoration of some elements of bilateral trade. There may also be movement on restoring visits to the Kartarpur Sahib gurdwara and an easing in some areas of visa restrictions……. “

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