Central Asia: India, China and Russia Competing

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Central Asia: India, China and Russia Competing

India’s diplomatic overtures in getting closer to Central Asian Countries (CAR) - Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and the Kyrgyz Republic - are bold and imaginative initiatives.  The recently concluded third India-Central Asian dialogue followed by an invitation to the heads of state of these nations to the forthcoming Republic Day celebrations, indicates the inroads made by India.

The foreign ministers of these nations attended the India-hosted dialogue, while sending their deputies to the simultaneous Pakistan conducted OIC conference on Afghanistan. This writes Harsha Kakar (retired Major-General of the Indian Army conveyed “the importance they attach to relations with India.”

The joint statement at the end of the India-Central Asian dialogue talked of increased Indian investments and aid for the region. It also covered enhanced security cooperation, without too many specifics, other than regular NSA meetings. A number of projects were approved, and a USD 1 billion line of credit was sanctioned. Afghanistan, which concerns India, Central Asian nations and Russia was discussed in detail.

 

Russia would prefer India influence in CAR compared to Chinas'

Kakar argues that Russia is suspicious about  Chinese activities in CAR. “Despite the supposed bonhomie between China and Russia, relations between the two are a matter of convenience rather than based on mutual benefit. Differences in economy and capabilities places Russia as a minor partner to China, something President Vladimir Putin would be unwilling to accept.”

On the other hand, “with India, Russia’s relationship has been time tested and beneficial, though trade has been low. Despite India’s proximity to the US, it displayed an independent and pro-Russia streak by signing multiple defence deals despite threat of sanctions. India has never criticized Russian actions. On its part, Russia has backed Indian concerns and sought to diffuse the current Indo-China crisis. Russia is sympathetic to Indian interests in its dealings with Pakistan, including sale of weapons.”

The schedule of the Indo-Russia summit (6 December), the Indo-Central Asian dialogue (18-19 December) and the PM Modi-Putin telephone conversation of 19 December, says Kakar “were not a coincidence. Russia would any day prefer Indian involvement in Central Asia as compared to Chinese inroads. Unlike China, India does not seek to dominate the region by replacing Russia.

 

Russian and Chinese interests clash in security areas

"This is because India is not a neighbour of these countries. China, which shares borders with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic has and will remain a long-term threat, hence its inroads into the region are a matter of concern for Russia……..

“While China controls these nations economically, Russia provides security through the Collective Security Treaty Organization. This is where Russian and Chinese interests clash as China seeks to replace Russia in the security domain……..

Russia seeks to reduce China’s influence in CAR: “For Russia, Chinese inroads into its security domain is unacceptable. For the Chinese, Indian inroads are equally undesirable. Ruslan Pukhov, Director of the Centre for Strategies and Technologies, Moscow, stated that India’s increased diplomatic proximity with Russia would displease Beijing. On India’s enhanced interactions with Central Asian nations, he stated that Russia seeks to reduce China’s influence in Central Asia by working with India to jointly manufacture and maintain weapons for the bloc. During the Indo-Russia summit, there were discussions on joint defence projects in these countries.”

According to reports, Kakar writes “a nonpaper was exchanged between the two sides covering Indian production of Russian-origin equipment and spares. TASS, the Russian news agency also reported that a document was signed mentioning that India will supply the former Soviet republics with spare parts for weapons that Russia and India manufacture jointly.”

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