INDIA – CHINA: STALEMATE AT THE BORDER

The Line of Actual Control (LAC) remains calm, yet intensely charged with heavy troop deployment by both sides. Diplomatic and military level talks have eased the charged border environment, but there are little signs of complete normalcy prevailing and a return to pre-April positions. Meanwhile, as India steps up deployment along the LAC, it has also taken additional economic measures.

China claims troops have disengaged at most sites

China has claimed that border troops of both countries “have disengaged in most localities” following close communication via military and diplomatic channels. Sources in the Indian Army however, said there has been no positive movement on the ground for more than two weeks now.

Sources said there was mutual pullback of troops, after the third round of talks on June 30, at all four friction points—PP 14 in Galwan Valley, PP15 in Hot Springs sector, PP 17A in Gogra Post area, and Finger 4 on the north bank of Pangong Tso. At PP 17A and Pangong Tso the disengagement has not been completed.

Around 50 troops on each side continue to remain within a kilometre of each other at PP 17A. In Pangong Tso, the Chinese, after coming 8 km west of Finger 8 which India says marks the LAC, vacated the Finger 4 base area and stepped back towards Finger 5. They continue to occupy the ridgeline at Finger 4.

Basically, there has been a stalemate since the last round of Corps Commander talks at Chushul on July 14. The fifth round of talks since June 6 is expected in the next few days.

China, India clarify pullback positions

Meanwhile, rejecting suggestions that China has expanded its territorial claim at Pangong Tso and emphasising Chinese claims, Sun Weidong, Beijing’s ambassador to New Delhi, Thursday said “China’s traditional customary boundary line is in accordance with the LAC” on the north bank of the lake.”

Speaking at a webinar organised by the Institute of Chinese Studies, Sun said “China hopes that the Indian troops will strictly abide by the relevant bilateral agreements and protocols between the two countries and refrain from illegally crossing the LAC to the Chinese side”.

“With the joint efforts of both sides, the border troops have disengaged in most localities, the situation on the ground is de-escalating and the temperature is coming down,” he said.

Responding, Anurag Srivastava, official spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs, said, “There has been some progress made towards this objective, but the disengagement process has as yet not been completed.”

Srivastava said “we expect that the Chinese side will sincerely work with us for complete disengagement and de-escalation and full restoration of peace and tranquility in the border areas at the earliest as agreed to by the Special Representatives.”

The Chinese ambassador, in his speech, said “China is not a strategic threat to India”, and cautioned against “forced de-coupling” of the relationship. “China advocates win-win cooperation and opposes zero-sum games. Our economies are highly complementary, interwoven and interdependent. Forced decoupling is against the trend and will only lead to a ‘lose-lose’ outcome.”

He cautioned against Indian public opinion urging India to adjust its position on Taiwan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and South China Sea. These are “totally China’s internal affairs and bear on China’s sovereignty and security…..”

India may add 35,000 troops along China border

As the disengagement process remains protracted, Sudhi Ranjan Sen (Senior Editor, Hindustan Times) reports India is preparing to position an additional 35,000 troops along its Himalayan border with China as the possibility of an early resolution to the deadly tensions between the two neighbours fades.

The move would change the status quo along the contested 3,488 kilometer (2,162 mile) Line of Actual Control. “The nature of the Line of Control, at least in Ladakh, has changed forever,” the director of Delhi-based think-tank The United Service Institution of India and retired major general, B K Sharma said. “Additional troops rushed by either side will not move back, unless there is a rapprochement at the highest political level.”

Costs of deployment: The extra deployment to eastern Ladakh comes as the Indian Army is heavily committed — from protecting the 742 kilometer (460 mile) disputed border with Pakistan, to counter insurgency operations in Jammu and Kashmir and north eastern states and monitoring every ingress point along its border with China.

“The additional commitment in Ladakh would put further pressure on serviceability, research and development and capital expenditure as revenue cost rise,” Laxman Kumar Behera, a senior research fellow at the Delhi based think-tank Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses said. “It will be painful if the defence budget isn’t increased.”

47 more Chinese apps banned; 250 more on radar

The government has meanwhile, banned 47 more apps over national security concerns. The ban comes a month after around 59 popular Chinese apps, including TikTok and SHAREit, were barred from operating in India over issues of data privacy and national security. The apps banned last week were clones of the apps banned previously and were operating despite the government warning.

India has also prepared a list of over 250 Chinese apps, including apps linked to Alibaba, that it will examine for any user privacy or national security violations. According to government sources the list also includes Tencent-backed gaming app PUBG. Although PubG videogame has been developed by a subsidiary of South Korean video game company Bluehole, it is also backed by China’s most valuable internet major Tencent.

Apps from other Chinese internet and tech majors like Meitu, LBE Tech, Perfect Corp, Sina Corp, Netease Games, Yoozoo Global are also in the list.

Huawei India loosing business

In an indication that Chinese firms are taking a hit, telecom equipment maker Huawei has slashed its India revenue target for 2020 by up to 50% and is laying off 60-70% of staff, excluding those in research and development and the Global Service Centre.

India has joined the US and UK in flagging security concerns over Huawei’s links to the Chinese government. New Delhi has already barred state-run carriers from sourcing equipment from Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE, and is believed to have informally nudged private telcos to replace Chinese equipment over time, without disrupting consumer services.

The local unit of Huawei, which follows the calendar year for accounting in India, posted $1.2 billion in revenue in 2017 but it’s dropped since then, first hurt by the financial stress of telcos and then lately by anti-China business moves in India. Huawei is now targeting $350-500 million in revenue for 2020, compared with roughly $700-800 million it was aiming for earlier.

The revision in outlook stems from the company not expecting any new business from its only two major telecom customers in the country — Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea.

Huawei is not the only Chinese vendor hit by recent developments. ZTE has slashed its workforce by almost 30% to nearly 600 due to declining India business as telecom operators have cut down on expenditure.

Centre considers cutting 5G prices: At the same time, it is understood that the government may consider lowering the base price of 5G spectrum to compensate telcos if they have to shell out more for buying non-Chinese equipment.

The absence of Huawei and ZTE would leave Indian telcos dependent on European vendors Ericsson and Nokia, besides South Korea’s Samsung. This would increase deployment costs by 15-20%, ultimately hurting retail and industrial customers.