India - Pakistan:  Low-Grade Militancy will continue

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India - Pakistan:  Low-Grade Militancy will continue

Developments in recent years, writes Harsha Kakar (retired Major-General of the Indian Army) “have witnessed a changing global scenario indirectly impacting Indo-Pak relations. These include the diplomatic and economic rise of India, its tilting to the west, mainly the US, the Ladakh standoff with China and India’s ability to stand its ground. Simultaneous, there has been Pakistan’s economic downslide, near isolation, being on the FATF Grey List for a prolonged duration and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. While India rose in stature, Pakistan receded. Added are changing global perceptions of China, visible in a recent joint address by the directors of the British MI 5 and US FBI. They warned that 'the Chinese government is trying to shape the world by interfering in our politics (and those of our allies)’.”

 

A more confident India

For India, Kakar writes “it would imply added attempts to change status quo along its northern borders, as also coordinating with Pakistan to ignite internal fires. The development of infrastructure by both India and China along the LAC indicates that the region would remain a primary concern for India, with the Indo-Pak border taking a secondary role. The movement of a corps from India’s western borders to its northern frontier further accentuates this belief. India’s refusal to normalize relations with China unless resolution of the LAC standoff to pre-Apr 2020 positions displays a hardening of stand. It is similar to India’s firm no terror talks stance with Pakistan. This is a confident India, unwilling to buckle under pressure…..”

 

‘India needs to reassess Pakistan’s possible future strategies’

It is in this context that India needs to reassess Pakistan’s possible future strategies against it, argues Kakar.  “Firstly, it is an accepted fact that the Zia era policy of ‘bleeding India by a thousand cuts’ is there to stay. No Pakistani government nor army chief can stem it.

Reigniting the Khalistan movement: “Secondly, Pakistan has commenced reigniting the Khalistan movement, though with limited success. It will take advantage of the global demand for Khalistan and attempt to link the Kashmir militancy with the Khalistan movement. To overcome its inability to push in arms it has switched to narco-terrorism including by increased employment of drones. Large recoveries of drugs in Punjab and J and K emanating from Pakistan substantiates this. It hopes to project a local character to militancy in both regions.

Exploiting India’s internal fault lines: “Thirdly, Pakistan will employ information warfare to exploit India’s internal fault lines…..For Pakistan, igniting riots is a cheaper option for keeping India internally engaged as also damage its economy and global standing. Pakistan-based media handles have projected India as intolerant and Islamophobic….

Pakistan will continue raising Kashmir: “Fourthly, Pakistan will continue raising Kashmir in every global or regional forum. It will continue insisting on resolving Kashmir based on UN resolutions and desires of the populace, ignoring the fact that the UNSC resolution was bypassed by it and post the Shimla agreement and Lahore declaration, it has no global standing. Internally, it will display support for the Kashmir cause by criticizing Indian security forces. At the same time, it will keep harping that peace in South Asia is dependent on resolution of Kashmir. Its unrealistic demand of restoring article 370 certifies its intention of placing the onus of talks on India.”

Pak-China mutual interests: Also “Pakistan understands that China will also not desire IndoPak relations moving towards normalcy. For China, Pakistan’s needling of India is essential to its strategy in Ladakh. Pakistan cannot and will not exploit an Indo-China clash to further its own aims, aware that it may end up as the loser.”

Under current conditions, Dakar concludes  “Indo Pak enmity will remain. India would continue battling low-grade militancy while weaning youth away from joining terrorist groups….”


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