India - Russia: Record High Trade

STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS

India - Russia: Record High Trade

According to the latest data of the Department of Commerce, India’s bilateral trade with Russia has soared to an all-time high of $18,229.03 million in just five months (April-August) of this financial year (2022-23).

This is as a result of  a surge in import of oil and fertilisers. In contrast, the total annual bilateral trade between the two countries stood at $13,124.68 million in 2021-22, and $8,141.26 million in 2020-21. Pre-Covid, it was $10,110.68 million in 2019-20, $8,229.91 million in 2018-19, and $10,686.85 million in 2017-18.

 

Russia, seventh biggest trading partner

With the sharp spike in trade, Russia has now become India’s seventh biggest trading partner — up from its 25th position last year.

In 1997-98, Russia was India’s 16th biggest trading partner. However, Russia’s position gradually fell, slipping to 34th in 2013-14. It began climbing up from 2014-15, and was India’s 23rd biggest trading partner in 2017-18. After that, it remained between 25th to 30th place, before climbing to seventh place in 2022-23.

 

Data analyses

In the past, there have been only two occasions when bilateral trade between the two countries crossed the $10 billion mark – in 2017-18 ($10,686.85 million) and 2019-20 ($10,110.68 million).

An analysis of the data shows that Russia’s share in India’s total trade has increased to 3.54%, up from 1.27% in 2021-22. While Russia’s share in India’s total trade was 2.1% in 1997-98, it has hovered below 2% for the last 25 years.

Petroleum oil and other fuel items (mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes) accounted for 84% of India’s total imports from Russia in April-August this year.

Fertilisers were second. Together, fertilisers and fuel together account for over 91% of the total imports from Russia this year.

On the other hand, pharmaceutical products ($176.51 million) and organic chemicals ($117.29 million) were the two main items shipped to Moscow.

India had a positive trade balance with Russia from 1997-98 (the most recent year for which comparable data is available) to 2002-03. But from 2003-04, New Delhi’s trade balance with Moscow has remained negative.

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