UN cuts India growth estimate to 6.4% in 2022
STORIES, ANALYSES, EXPERT VIEWS
The United Nations in its World Economic Situation and Prospects report Wednesday said India is expected to grow 6.4% in 2022, well below the 8.8% growth in 2021, as higher inflationary pressures and uneven recovery of the labour market are likely to curb private consumption and investment.
It said the global economy is now projected to grow 3.1% in 2022, down from 4% projected in January, due to broad based deterioration of growth prospects including the US, EU, China and a majority of developing countries.
In its report as of mid-2022, the UN’s department of economic and social affairs said global inflation is projected to increase to 6.7% in 2022, twice the average of 2.9% during 2010–2020, with sharp rises in food and energy prices.
India, fastest-growing major economy: The regional economic output is projected to expand by 5.5 per cent in 2022, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the forecast released in January.
"India, the largest economy in the region, is expected to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2022, well below the 8.8 per cent growth in 2021, as higher inflationary pressures and uneven recovery of the labour market will curb private consumption and investment," it said.
For the fiscal year 2023, India's growth is forecast to be 6 per cent.
Lead Author & Chief, Global Economic Monitoring Branch, Economic Analysis and Policy Division, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Hamid Rashid told reporters at the UN Headquarters that almost all regions in the world are affected by high inflation except for East Asia and South Asia.
He said "India in that sense" is a "little bit" in a better position as it did not have to aggressively pursue monetary tightening compared to other countries in Latin America.
"We expect Indian recovery to remain strong in the near term, in the next year and two, but again we cannot completely discount the downside risk that would come from external channels. So that risk is still there," he said.
